Carol Nolan (Offaly, Sinn Fein)
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122. To ask the Minister for Education and Skills the estimated costs in terms of both current and capital spending, to provide for estimated demographic increases over each of the ten years for the higher education sector, assuming that service remains at an equivalent level to the current level of provision; if he has included this figure in the €500 million in additional spending under the programme for Government; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [17710/16]

Richard Bruton (Dublin Bay North, Fine Gael)
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As the Deputy is aware, current demographic patterns will drive an increase in demand for higher education in the coming years. My Department publishes projections each year of enrolments at primary and second level and of demand for higher education for the following 15 - 18 year period. These projections are available on my Department's website.

Current projections envisage the demand for fulltime higher education at both undergraduate and postgraduate level will be 17.3% higher in 2026/27 than 2014/15 (last year of published student numbers).

The following table provides an estimate of the additional State funding required over the next ten year period to accommodate likely growth in numbers assuming that service is to remain at current levels of provision.

In relation to current funding, the HEA block grant provided some €4,800 per full-time equivalent student in 2015 and this is used as the baseline funding level. In relation to capital funding, it is estimated that continuing growth will generate a demand for new accommodation of at least €1 billion over the next fifteen years. The Deputy may wish to note that, given the number of variables that must be considered in extrapolating capital costs over a period on an annual basis, we have presented these costs on an average annual basis of €70 million. It should be noted that it is expected that a proportion of this funding would be met through non-state sources.

I would like to assure the Deputy that the Government is committed to investment in education and training. Specific allocations in the Department's estimates for 2017 and later years will be determined in the context of agreeing budgets for those years. In line with the enhanced role which is envisaged for the Dáil in the budgetary process, information will be made available to the House on the policy choices available to Government, the draft allocation of new expenditure and the projected impact of policy changes.

Table: Estimated Costs for Demographics

2. Current cost estimates are based on Full-time Equivalent student numbers in HEA-funded institutions. Please note that HEIs supplement state funding with student contributions, tuition fees and other income sources. These estimates relate only to the estimated additional cost to the State assuming that the student contribution remains at €3,000 and the proportion of state:non-state funding remains constant.

3. Capital costs are estimated average annual costs over the period.

4. These figures do not include any additional costs to the student support budget.