Richard Boyd Barrett (Dún Laoghaire, People Before Profit Alliance)
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557. To ask the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform the amount accounted for by projected demographic pressures and by projected inflation in respect of the projected fiscal space to 2021; the space which remains beyond these requirements on a year by year basis; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [10204/16]

Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael)
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Table 4 on page 31 of Expenditure Report 2016, published by my Department in October 2015, sets out the current expenditure ceilings across Government Departments for the three year period 2016 to 2018.

Excluding the impact of the Lansdowne Road Agreement, the gross current expenditure ceilings increase by €0.4 billion in 2017 and €0.3 billion in 2018. These increases take into account:

- projected expenditure pressures in Health, Education and Social Protection arising from demographics;

- projected additional expenditure in Agriculture arising from the roll-out of the Rural Development Programme; and

- the projected carry over impact of certain Budget 2016 measures.

It should be noted that the ceilings for the Department of Social Protection reflect an adjustment to take account of expected lower numbers on the Live Register.

Ministerial Expenditure Ceilings in respect of current expenditure have not been set for periods after 2018. Consequently, the figures in respect of demographic pressures for periods post 2018 included in Table A9 of the Budget book published by the Department of Finance, use the aggregate overall amount of €0.3 billion included for 2018, adjusted for a lower amount being available for reallocation within expenditure from Live Register savings.

In addition to the costs outlined above, the ceilings in the Expenditure Report, and the voted expenditure projections in the Budget Book, include costs relating to the Lansdowne Road Agreement and the increased investment set out in the Capital Plan published in September 2015. The expenditure projections do not take into account the impact of general inflationary increases.

As outlined by the Minister for Finance, at the time of the publication of the April 2016 Stability Programme Update the estimated fiscal space was quantified as being of the order of €10 billion to €11 billion over the period 2017 to 2021. It was made clear that these estimates represented work in progress by the Department of Finance and are subject to change, with the calculations requiring various technical inputs. It is proposed that the Government will publish a revised estimate of fiscal space next month in conjunction with the Summer Economic Statement.