Bernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
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45. To ask the Minister for Finance the extent to which he remains satisfied regarding the stability of the economy with particular reference to possible negative external factors; if he has in mind any particular initiatives in the event of Brexit; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [10839/16]

Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
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The Stability Programme Update (SPU), published last month following its submission to the European Commission, sets out my Department's assessment of the economic outlook to 2021 together with a detailed assessment of risks. My Department expects the economy to grow by 4.9 per cent this year, by 3.9 per cent next year and by 3.25 per cent on average over the remainder of the forecast horizon out to 2021.

The SPU also notes that, while the outlook for the next 18 months is relatively benign, internationally the level of uncertainty is higher than at any stage since the height of the financial crisis

There is, in particular, heightened uncertainty regarding the near-term prospects for many Emerging Market Economies (EMEs), including China. EMEs have been an important growth engine in recent years, and while Ireland's direct trade exposure remains relatively small, the Irish economy would be exposed to a more generalised slowdown in the world economy.

A more disruptive international environment could generate significant headwinds for the Irish economy. This underlines the need to maintain prudent fiscal policies, keep expenditure under control, remain competitive and it is why I have consistently reiterated my commitment to Ireland's corporate tax regime.

On the upcoming UK referendum on EU membership, as has been clearly articulated, the UK's continued membership of the Union is a matter of strategic importance for the Government. In this regard, Government Departments, including my own, have been working on this matter for some time. Under the Department of Finance/Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) research programme agreement, my Department commissioned research to be undertaken on scoping the potential economic implications on Ireland of a change in the EU/UK relationship. The research was published on 5 November 2015 and is an important contribution to understanding the potential issues arising. My Department, and other Government Departments, are continuing our assessment of all the issues involved in protecting Ireland's interests and we are continuing to explore the potential risks and to plan accordingly in the period up to 23 June 2016.