Michael Healy-Rae (Kerry, Independent)
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204. To ask the Minister for Finance if his Department has undertaken a risk assessment on the potential effect of the Presidential election in the United States of America on the economy (details supplied); and if he will make a statement on the matter. [10071/16]

Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
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The Stability Programme Update (SPU), published last month and submitted to the European Commission and Council, sets out my Department's assessment of the economic outlook to 2021 together with a detailed assessment of risks. My Department expects the economy to grow by 4.9 per cent this year and by 3.9 per cent next year. Over the medium term, the economy can probably grow by around 3¼ per cent per annum on a sustainable basis.

Of course, as a small open economy, Ireland is disproportionately vulnerable to adverse developments in the international economy. This is especially true of the US which remains one of Ireland's major trading partners.

The SPU also notes that, while the outlook for the next 18 months is relatively benign, internationally the level of uncertainty is higher than at any stage since the height of the financial crisis. A more disruptive international environment could generate significant headwinds for the Irish economy. This underlines the need to maintain prudent fiscal policies, keep expenditure under control, remain competitive and it is why I have consistently reiterated my commitment to Ireland's corporate tax regime. Indeed various research reports by my Department and by the ESRI in recent years have shown the critical role of a competitive tax regime in attracting FDI and the key role played by the FDI sector in our overall economic story.