Written answers

Tuesday, 10 November 2015

Department of An Taoiseach

Census of Population Data

Photo of Joe CareyJoe Carey (Clare, Fine Gael)
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111. To ask the Taoiseach the projected figures for the number of persons of 70 years of age and over, as at 2016, 2021, and 2026; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [38970/15]

Photo of Paul KehoePaul Kehoe (Wexford, Fine Gael)
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The Central Statistics Office publishes population projections for the State after each Census, the last set of projections were published in April 2013 and cover the years 2016-2046.

The projections are based on assumptions relating to future trends in fertility, mortality and migration. Two sets of assumptions were chosen for fertility, one for mortality and three for migration.

The model used in these projections is the demographic component method, which projects the base population forward under the chosen assumptions. The base year used was 2011, using the Census of Population results.

For the purposes of the table provided, only the assumptions relating to mortality and migration are relevant. The fertility assumptions are not relevant as all persons that will be aged 70 years or over in the years 2016, 2021 and 2026 were already born in 2011.

Mortality Assumption

The long-term rate of improvement in life expectancy is assumed to be 1.5 per cent over the period 2016-2046.

Migration Assumptions

M1: Net migration returning to positive (net inflow of persons) by 2016 and rising steadily thereafter to plus 30,000 persons annually by 2021.

M2: Net migration returning to positive by 2018 and rising thereafter to plus 10,000 persons annually by 2021.

M3: Net migration remaining negative for the whole period.

Projected Population aged 70 and over from 2011, by Criteria for Projection and Year

'000

YearM1M2M3
2011359.5359.5359.5
2016418.7418.4418.3
2021507.8506.2504.6
2026606.7603.0599.2

Source: Central Statistics Office.'

Photo of Joe CareyJoe Carey (Clare, Fine Gael)
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112. To ask the Taoiseach the number of persons, aged 70 years of age and over, who were resident in County Clare in 1991; in 1996; in 2001; in 2006; and in 2011; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [38971/15]

Photo of Paul KehoePaul Kehoe (Wexford, Fine Gael)
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The information requested by the Deputy is contained in the following table.

Census YearPopulation aged 70 years and over in County Clare
19917,869
19968,183
20028,561
20068,937
20119,578

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