Written answers

Tuesday, 29 September 2015

Photo of Bernard DurkanBernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
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284. To ask the Minister for Finance the degree to which he expects the economy to grow in the future; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [33362/15]

Photo of Bernard DurkanBernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
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285. To ask the Minister for Finance the extent to which he remains satisfied that economic progress is likely to continue into the future; if the cost-base remains competitive and if it is likely to remain so in the future; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [33363/15]

Photo of Bernard DurkanBernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
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288. To ask the Minister for Finance the extent to which he is satisfied regarding the economic prospects over the next five years; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [33366/15]

Photo of Bernard DurkanBernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
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290. To ask the Minister for Finance the extent to which the economy remains attractive to foreign direct and indigenous investment for the foreseeable future; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [33368/15]

Photo of Michael NoonanMichael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
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I propose to take Questions Nos. 284, 285, 288 and 290 together.

In general, recent indicators have been very positive, indicating that the recovery is strengthening in a more sustainable manner.  

The latest data shows that GDP increased by 6.7 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of this year. This comes on the back of an increase of 7.2 per cent in the first quarter. As a result, GDP per capita is now above its pre-crisis peak. In the Spring Economic Statement, published in April of this year, my Department forecast that the economy would grow by 4 per cent in 2015 and 3.8 per cent in 2016. On the basis of strong quarterly national account results for the first and second quarters of this year, I expect these projections to be revised upwards in the macroeconomic forecasts which will be published with the Budget in mid-October. 

Importantly, the recovery is now being felt in the domestic economy with consumption up over 3 per cent in the first half of this year and investment up over 20 per cent. In fact, last year domestic demand made its strongest positive contribution to economic growth since the crisis began. This is very important as the domestic sectors are both jobs-rich and tax-rich. The external sector is also showing continuing signs of growth with exports increasing by almost 14 per cent in the first half of this year.

The economic recovery is also clearly evident in the labour market where we have now had eleven successive quarters of solid annual employment growth. As a result, the unemployment rate has fallen by almost 6 percentage points since its peak in early 2012.

Over the medium term, my Department expects that the economy can grow by around 3 per cent per annum on a sustainable basis. However, achieving a sustained economic recovery cannot be taken for granted and is contingent upon the implementation of the right policy mix. As set out in the Spring Economic Statement, the Government is using all policy instruments available to build sustainable public finances, improve access to credit and reform the income tax system. A carefully targeted capital investment plan will be used to alleviate supply side bottlenecks and barriers to growth. The Ireland Strategic Investment Fund and the Strategic Banking Corporation of Ireland which I established will also contribute in this regard.  The gains in Irish competitiveness achieved since 2008 have been hard-won through productivity improvements, wage and price moderation. It is important that this competitiveness is preserved to continue to attract foreign direct and indigenous investment.

In summary, I am confident that significant economic progress can be made in the years ahead. But crucially,  this is contingent upon implementing appropriate polices. That is what the Government intends to do. 

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