Dara Calleary (Mayo, Fianna Fail)
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362. To ask the Minister for Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation if he will provide an update on the latest discussions on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [28711/15]

Richard Bruton (Dublin North Central, Fine Gael)
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The 9th round of a new EU/US free trade deal negotiations took place in New York from 20 – 24 April 2015. The 10^thround is being held this week (13 – 17 July) in Brussels. The objective during these rounds is to make as much progress as possible in all areas of the negotiations. During the last Round, work advanced in all three pillars of the negotiations: market access, regulatory cooperation and rules. On market access, the discussions were technical, aimed at better understanding the respective tariff offers and issues around government procurement. Regulatory issues took up a lot of the time, with a focus on both horizontal co-operation as well as the 9 specific sectors [cars, pharmaceuticals, medical devices, cosmetics, engineering, textiles, chemicals, pesticides, ICT]. The regulatory discussions are aimed at enhancing transatlantic trade by reinforcing regulatory co-operation in areas of shared interest and cutting out overlapping, unnecessary red-tape. The discussions in the area of rules included sustainable development, and energy and raw materials. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) were also discussed in the last Round, specifically, how SMEs might benefit from a new free trade deal. A Report released by the EU Commission on 20 April, which identifies perceived obstacles to trade for SMEs, will inform the EU approach in this area. The definitive time-frame is difficult to predict but it is expected that there will be substantial progress in these negotiations in 2015. According to assessments made by the EU Commission, a comprehensive free trade deal could over time boost EU GDP by 0.5% bringing significant economic gains as a whole for the EU. This converts into 400,000 jobs across the EU. An independent study commissioned by my Department, carried out by Copenhagen Economics, estimates that these benefits in Ireland will be proportionally greater than in the EU as a whole. It suggests a boost to GDP of 1.1%, growth in Irish exports of almost 4%, increases in investment of 1.5%, and an increase in real wages of 1.5%. It estimates somewhere between 5,000 and 10,000 additional export related jobs.

It also suggests that Irish SMEs will be particular beneficiaries. Many of these are part of European supply chains where their exports to the UK, Germany or elsewhere to the EU, feed into Europe’s exports to the U.S. Ireland’s approach to negotiations will be informed by the analysis from Copenhagen Economics. We will seek to have opportunities created in the agreement where we have clear strengths, and we will seek defend our interests where we have sensitivities.

As an economy that lives and grows by the freedom to trade, we have first-hand experience of how trade liberalisation has continually shaped and reshaped our economy. The Copenhagen Economics study should also inform our policy responses as a result of TTIP. Some of these may arise from sector impacts that have been identified in the Copenhagen Economics study. We have used openness to trade in the past, and will continue to use it, as an instrument for structural reform, modernisation and development, creating new opportunities for innovation and stronger productivity growth with higher skilled jobs throughout the economy.

Mick Wallace (Wexford, Independent)
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365. To ask the Minister for Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation if he will provide an update on the latest round of negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership; if, further to Parliamentary Question No.181 of 19 May 2015, he has had the opportunity to access the confidential reading rooms in the embassy of the United States of America in Dublin, in order to assess the content of the partnership; if so, if he has had the opportunity to read the US's input papers, draft partnership chapters, and consolidated texts, in this regard; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [28756/15]

Richard Bruton (Dublin North Central, Fine Gael)
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The EU US consolidated negotiating texts have been made available through a confidential reading room in the US Embassy in Dublin. My officials have reviewed these texts on my behalf and fully briefed me on their contents.

Mick Wallace (Wexford, Independent)
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366. To ask the Minister for Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation if he has read the source research upon which much of the growth data for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership is based, namely Ecorys 2009 non-tariff measures in EU-US Trade and Investment and Economic Analysis (Rotterdam; Ecorys Netherlands BV), and CEPR 2013 reducing transatlantic barriers to trade and investment: an economic assessment (London: CEPR); and if he will make a statement on the matter. [28757/15]

Richard Bruton (Dublin North Central, Fine Gael)
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I am familiar with these studies and the economic models on which these studies are based. The Ecorys 2009 study addresses the technically and analytically complex task of calculating the impact of non-tariff barriers in transatlantic trade. Non-tariff barriers include licences, standards, administrative rules or other measures that make it difficult or impossible for firms to sell into new markets. The aim of the EU US free trade agreement is to break down as many non-tariff barriers as possible. The Ecorys study presents a detailed qualitative and quantitative estimate of these NTBs using a multi-faceted methodology combining literature reviews, business surveys, econometric analyses, consultation with regulators businesses and sector experts. This was also used by the European Commission’s assessment of the likely benefits of a new free trade agreement between the EU and US which was conducted by the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).

The study commissioned by my Department on the impact of a new deal in Ireland was prepared by Copenhagen Economics who are independent and renowned external experts in this field. The study is based on the best available techniques of economic modelling and uses the same model and methodology as the CEPR study, to facilitate direct comparison.

The CEPR and Copenhagen Economics studies use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the impact of TTIP. These are standard tools for trade economists that create a computerised simulation of the world economy and model what happens when changes are introduced.

The CGE model is state-of-the-art. It needs to make assumptions about the economy in order to work but these are as reasonable as possible to make it as close to the real world as possible. For instance, it is able to account for the effects of economies of scale, different skill-levels of employees, imperfect competition between companies and many other features of the real world economy.

Like any model, the CGE model has limitations. The figures are an indication of the economic effects rather than precise predictions of exactly what will happen. But the model is not able to take all effects on productivity into account, for example, nor the positive effects on foreign investment by multinational firms, which is very significant for international trade in services in particular. This suggests that the estimated benefits of an Agreement are conservative.

Alternatives to the CGE approach may have their merits but none has yet proven to be sufficiently reliable for an ex-ante analysis of economy-wide effects of trade policy changes.