Aengus Ó Snodaigh (Dublin South Central, Sinn Fein)
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431. To ask the Minister for Children and Youth Affairs if he will provide a breakdown by year, from 2016 to 2021, inclusive, of the estimated additional expenditure required to meet the requirements of demographic changes on a no-policy-change basis; and if he will identify the component parts of that expenditure. [18698/15]

James Reilly (Dublin North, Fine Gael)
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Funding requirements and how resources should be prioritised and allocated across each area of Government spending are generally considered as part of the annual estimates cycle and budgetary process. My overall objective over the period 2016 to 2021 will be to realise funding allocations that reflect expenditure policy priorities and demographic provision and that sufficient resources are directed towards those areas of greatest impact on children and young people.

Ireland is experiencing substantial demographic growth. For example, a report titled “Primary and Post-Primary Education 2015-2030” prepared by the Irish Government Economic and Evaluation Service (DPER) indicates that pupil numbers at primary and post primary level have increased by over 60,000 in the last 5 years. The same report considers a likely increase of some 15,000 pupils in primary/post primary schools in 2015 compared to the previous year, gradually rising to a peak of approximately 979,000 pupils in school in 2024, compared to 889,000 in 2014. While this report was prepared in the context of the Education sector it is reasonable to extrapolate a similar increase in demographic demand in relation to services provided across the vote of the Department of Children and Youth Affairs, in particular in the range of services provided by the Child and Family Agency, the youth sector and pre-school services.

There is an increasing demographic demand manifesting itself in child and family services. The period since 2006 has seen an upward trend in child welfare and abuse referrals. Since 2012 there has been a change and standardisation in the counting methodology used by the HSE/Tusla for abuse and welfare referrals making it difficult to make direct comparisons with current figures. However it is clear that the trend in referrals has been increasing, with totals reaching over 40,000 child welfare and abuse referrals per annum. Following screening, the numbers of cases deemed as needing a social work service has not increased to the same degree.

While the overall number of children in care has increased, the number of children being admitted to state care has been decreasing steadily over the last number of years. This fall is contrary to other key related figures: the rising child population, rising levels of referrals to Tusla, and the rising number of children in care. The increase in the number of children in care overall is a feature of children not exiting care. This is due to an increase in the number of children staying longer in care and, although the numbers entering care has decreased, it is still greater than the numbers leaving. Introduction of standard business practices, the application of national thresholds and measures to address children’s needs through other interventions (eg: Pathways/Meitheal) are expected to provide better information for the management of services.

Therefore, it is vitally important that unavoidable costs due to demographic pressures are fully addressed in the annual estimates process and that the impact of demographic change in this regard for the costs of programmes and schemes administered by my Department are properly captured on an ongoing basis.

The Deputy might also note that Better Outcomes, Brighter Futures: the National Policy Framework for Children and Young People 2014-2020 was published and launched by Government in 2014. The framework comprehends the continuum from infancy through early and middle childhood to adolescence and early adulthood. It provides the overarching framework for the development and implementation of policy and services for children and young people. The Framework brings together key policies instanced in the Programme for Government including those relating to prevention and early intervention initiatives, early childhood education, breaking the cycle of disadvantage, through area based approaches to address child poverty, aftercare provision and addressing issues around anti-social behaviour. It also provides a means for cross departmental collaboration to promote the well-being of children and young people and a fresh impetus to a whole-of-government approach to current and emerging issues, including childhood obesity, healthy lifestyles, the impact of media and new technologies, the sexualisation of children and promoting pro-social behaviour. It accommodates a number of constituent strategies which focus in greater detail on the areas of Participation, Early Years, and Youth.