Bernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
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62. To ask the Minister for Finance the degree to which all economic indicators have been stress tested, to verify the extent to which this economy remains on recovery and a sound economic development course; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [18038/15]

Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
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My Department analyses all economic indicators continuously throughout the year to provide up-to-date policy advice and to produce the economic forecasts that underpin the Budget and Stability Programme Update.

In general, recent indicators have been positive, indicating that the recovery is gaining momentum and becoming more broad based.

First estimates of economic activity for 2014 show that annual GDP increased by 4.8 per cent while GNP rose by 5.2 per cent. Encouragingly, domestic demand made its first positive contribution to growth since the crisis began with consumption increasing by 1.1 per cent in 2014 compared to 2013 and investment up 11.3 per cent over the same period. Exports rose by 12.6 per cent annually with imports rising by 13.2 per cent.

The economic recovery is perhaps most clearly evident in the labour market where we have now had nine successive quarters of solid employment growth. As a result, the unemployment rate has fallen 5 percentage points since its peak in early 2012.

High frequency data relating to 2015 have also been encouraging:

- Consumer spending has been strong in Q1 2015 with retail sales up by almost 9 per cent year on year.  Core sales (excluding motor trades) were up close to 5 per cent over the same period.

- Investment is also growing with both building/construction and machinery/equipment spending on a rising path.  Recovery in the construction sector continued in March with the Purchasing Managers' Index for the sector recording its nineteenth successive month of expansion.

- These encouraging macroeconomic data are mirrored in the total taxation receipts which are up strongly in the first four months of the year.

My Department published its latest macroeconomic forecasts in April with the Stability Programme Update 2015. GDP is expected to expand by 4.0 per cent in 2015 and by 3.8 per cent in 2016. Over the remainder of the decade, Departmental estimates indicate that the economy has the capacity to grow by around 3-3¼ per cent per annum. These forecasts reflect the latest economic indicators and demonstrate that a sustained recovery is underway.