Written answers

Thursday, 17 July 2014

Photo of Brendan GriffinBrendan Griffin (Kerry South, Fine Gael)
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86. To ask the Minister for Finance if illegal trade in counterfeit and illicit alcohol, cigarettes, fuel and CD, DVDs will be included in overall GDP figures, if so, the impact their inclusion will have; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [32372/14]

Photo of Brendan GriffinBrendan Griffin (Kerry South, Fine Gael)
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87. To ask the Minister for Finance if black market construction activity will be included in overall GDP figures; if so, the impact the inclusion will have; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [32373/14]

Photo of Michael NoonanMichael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
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I propose to take Questions Nos. 86 and 87 together.

There are considerable challenges facing the Central Statistics Office (CSO) in accurately measuring illicit activities, for obvious reasons. I am informed by the CSO that statisticians use any available data that can produce a repeatable, consistent estimate for these activities over time.  The fact that they are illegal makes them particularly difficult to estimate as the actors involved are operating outside of the law and consequently outside of any regulatory or official systems. Consequently, the estimation methods used can only be expected to deliver approximations of the actual levels of activity.

The extension of the coverage of illegal activities in Ireland's most recent GDP estimates related only to prostitution and aspects of the drugs trade.

Estimates for fuel and cigarette smuggling have been included for several years.  I am also informed by the CSO that estimates of unrecorded construction activity have been included in the GDP estimates for Ireland for many years. Other items such as sales of counterfeit CDs and DVDs are estimated using the Household Budget Survey as a basis for estimating the overall demand for these products. Consequently, there is no particular impact on the latest estimates of GDP.

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