Dara Calleary (Mayo, Fianna Fail)
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20. To ask the Minister for Finance if he will publish financial projections in advance of budget 2015 outlining the expected deficit next year under a range of different adjustment levels; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [28544/14]

Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
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The most up-to-date budgetary estimates, published in the Stability Programme Update  (SPU) in April, are based on the assumption of a consolidation package of €2.0bn in 2015 which is designed to deliver a deficit of 2.9 per cent of GDP in 2015. This is within the excessive deficit procedure (EDP) ceiling of 3.0 per cent.  The macroeconomic forecasts underpinning the SPU have been endorsed by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council.

As the Deputy will be aware from previous parliamentary questions, a different quantum of consolidation would change the outlook for economic activity and revenue growth. It should be noted that the exact impact on revenue and the deficit is difficult to estimate given the significant number of dependent factors, most significantly, assumptions around the composition of adjustment.

Overall, given the number of moving parts and only six months of revenue and expenditure data to hand, it is too early to speculate on what the starting position for the Budget will be.  The next formal forecast will be the White Paper on Receipts and Expenditures which will be published in advance of the Budget and will set out the no-policy-change position for 2015.

In general, fiscal policy has to strike the right balance between supporting growth on job creation on the one hand, and bolstering the hard-won market confidence of recent years on the other.