Bernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source

71. To ask the Minister for Finance the extent to which Exchequer returns continue to indicate meeting various taxations targets under their respective headings as envisaged for Budget 2013; the way he expects this to impact on future performance in 2014; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [49796/13]

Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source

Tax revenues in the period to end-October remain largely in line with the 2013 published profile coming in some €37 million (0.1%) ahead of profile, despite some variations at individual tax head level. Notwithstanding this position, the forecast of €37,825 million for 2013, as set out in Budget 2014 stands. This represents a fall of €125 million (0.3%) on the original Budget 2013 forecast. Moving to individual tax heads, excise duties continue to be below profile with declines in receipts from alcohol and tobacco the main contributors.

As discussed in the Budget 2014 booklet, the shortfall in value added tax (VAT) can be largely explained by a sector specific issue unrelated to personal consumption expenditure. Encouragingly, receipts during the most recent VAT due month of September, reflective of trading during July and August, was up €80 million on expectations. This is consistent with the uptick in retail sales over the summer and the impact of the change in the car registration system. Nevertheless, despite its positive momentum in the domestic economy, a small shortfall against profile is expected.

Turning to income tax, the largest tax head, performance in the year to date has been healthy. The position at end-October is a small shortfall of 1% against profile. This is substantially attributable to the lower than expected DIRT receipts as a result of the low interest rate environment. Encouragingly, other elements of income tax are actually ahead of target, reflective of the better than expected performance of the labour market.

Against these downsides, there has also been an over performance relative to expectation in some key tax heads, with corporation tax performing particularly well, up €235 million against profile to end October. Stamp duties are also recording a surplus against profile to end October, with volumes increasing across the board from property transactions to share disposals.

The table below set outs the original Budget 2013 forecasts for each tax head, the revised forecast outturn for 2013 and the forecast for 2014 as set out in Budget 2014 last month.

Source: Department of Finance

Figures are rounded to the nearest €5 million.

The performance for October 2013 does not warrant a change to the 2013 outturn forecast as Budget 2014, which was based on the performance to the end of September. Consequently, the forecast for 2014 tax revenue also stands.