Thomas Pringle (Donegal South West, Independent)
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75. To ask the Minister for Finance the impact on the fiscal deficit if Government expenditure in 2014 was maintained at 2013 levels, with only increases or reductions based on carryover effects from budget 2013, and with a growth in GDP of 0.5%, 1%, 1.5%, and 2%; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [39966/13]

Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
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For the purposes of answering the question several assumptions have to be made. These are that: Planned revenue consolidation measures outlined in April’s Stability Programme Update remain unchanged. This is because the composition of GDP growth is crucial in forecasting tax and non-tax revenues and use of headline GDP growth would be misleading. General government expenditure is maintained at the 2013 level. Questions regarding voted expenditure carryover effects from Budget 2013 should be addressed to my colleague the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform. The growth scenarios suggested by the Deputy are for real GDP growth. Nominal GDP shown below is based on the application of the SPU GDP deflator applied to the growth rates suggested by the Deputy.

Based on these assumptions, the scenarios are set out in the table below.

The Deputy should note that failure to implement the expenditure consolidation would result in Ireland missing the agreed targets even in a scenario where revenue consolidation takes place.