Martin Ferris (Kerry North-West Limerick, Sinn Fein)
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To ask the Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine if he has conducted a study of the likely impact of the proposed reform of the single farm payment; and if he will make the study available; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [45897/12]

Simon Coveney (Cork South Central, Fine Gael)
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The Commission proposal is to move to flat rates of payment per hectare, on a national or regional basis by 2019. My Department has conducted an analysis of the impact of this proposal on Ireland. The results are set out in the paragraphs under. I would emphasise, however, that these figures are not intended to be predictive of what individual farmers will get. Rather the modelling conducted is intended as an analysis tool to compare the overall impact of different proposals on Irish farmers.

A national flat-rate model would result in very large transfers between Irish farmers. Some 76,412 farmers (representing 57.4% of all applicants in 2009) would see their total payments rise from just over €352 million in 2009, to more than €654 million in 2019, representing an average increase per farmer of almost 86%. The remaining 56,683 farmers would see their total payments fall from nearly €908 million in 2009 to €606 million in 2019, representing an average reduction per farmer of just over 33%.

A regional model, whereby the country is divided into two regions (NUTS 2), would result in the payments of 74,897 farmers increasing from an overall total of just under €363m in 2009 to more than €657m in 2019, representing an increase of just over 81% on average per farmer. Conversely, the 58,198 farmers who lose out would see their total payments fall from €897.5m in 2009 to just under €603m in 2019, representing a reduction of 33% on average per farmer.

There is no real improvement in the situation under a NUTS 3 analysis, applying the flat-rate model to eight planning regions. Again, those who gain from the ensuing redistribution of payments do so to a significant degree. In this scenario, 74,445 farmers would see their total payments increase from just under €382 million in 2009 to €667.5 million in 2019, representing an average increase per farmer of 75%. The remaining 58,650 would lose out by an average of 33% per farmer, with their overall payments falling from just over €878 million in 2009 to €593 million in 2019.

The Commission’s proposals provide a degree of flexibility to Member States to define regions using agronomic and economic criteria. The implications of using the nine-region model based on stocking density are not dissimilar to the regional area-based alternatives examined earlier. Again, significant losses and gains are experienced even where similar areas in terms of productivity are grouped together, and significant transfers are made from the more active farmers in each region to less active and more marginal farmers.

We have conducted extensive modelling of a variety of other scenarios in an effort to limit redistribution. The approach that seems most appropriate for Ireland is the external convergence model proposed by the Commission for convergence of payments between Member States. This is an approximation approach whereby all payments would move gradually towards, but not fully to, the average. We have submitted a paper jointly with Italy, Spain, Portugal, Luxembourg and Denmark advocating application of the same methodology to the distribution between farmers on their total (green + basic) payment. Under this approach, 65,000 farmers would gain an average of 29.1% while 55,916 would lose an average of 8.8% and 8,943 farmers would be unaffected.