Pearse Doherty (Donegal South West, Sinn Fein)
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Question 100: To ask the Minister for Finance if he intends to further revise downward the growth projections for 2012 in view of the fact that the growth figures for 2011 have underperformed by 0.3% for GDP and 2.9% for GNP compared to the Budget Day Economic and Fiscal Outlook, the general Government to deficit to GDP ratio for 2011; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [17144/12]

Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
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In early January, my Department reported on the cash Exchequer deficit for 2011 and this was slightly better than anticipated at Budget time last December. Currently, my Department in conjunction with the CSO is updating the 2011 budgetary outturn in the context of the excessive deficit notification, which all EU27 Member States participate in. In this context, the outturn for the general government deficit will be published during April. In relation to the growth outlook, officials from my Department are currently assessing all available data, including the quarterly national accounts published last week, with a view to updating the forecasts. These updated projections will be contained in the Stability Programme Update , which will be published at end-April, in the context of the European Semester.

Pearse Doherty (Donegal South West, Sinn Fein)
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Question 101: To ask the Minister for Finance if he will explain the way, as late as December 2011 projected GNP to grow by 0.4% when the actual figure for 2011 GNP, as reported in the CSO quarterly national accounts, was - 2.4% leaving an overestimation by him of 2.9%; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [17145/12]

Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
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In relation to economic growth, GDP developments are the internationally accepted metric.

Last December, on the basis of existing published CSO data for the first half of last year, my Department projected that the economy would expand by 1 per cent for last year as a whole. This figure was in line with the prevailing consensus at the time.

Preliminary data from Central Statistics Office – and I stress that the figures are preliminary – suggest that the economy expanded by 0.7 per cent in real terms last year. So our economy is expanding, the first time this has happened since 2007, which is to be welcomed.

The difference between GDP and GNP relates to the movement of payments into and out of Ireland from the rest of the world. Such payments relate to flows of both Irish corporates situated abroad and foreign owned multinationals located in Ireland, as well as the significant outward flows relating to the servicing of our national debt. In an economy like ours, GNP developments are very volatile on a quarterly basis, a point which is repeatedly made by the Central Statistics Office. This volatility stems from inter alia very large profit flows – in both directions – between Ireland and the rest of the world referred to above. This in turn is a function of the openness of the Irish economy, and makes all projections of GNP subject to considerable uncertainty.