Written answers

Wednesday, 28 March 2012

Department of Transport, Tourism and Sport

Light Rail Project

9:00 pm

Photo of Éamon Ó CuívÉamon Ó Cuív (Galway West, Fianna Fail)
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Question 16: To ask the Minister for Transport, Tourism and Sport the relative cost benefit analysis ratios of each of the Luas BXD, the Metro North and the DART underground; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [16894/12]

Photo of Leo VaradkarLeo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael)
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The Deputy's question relates to the cost benefit analysis ratio of LUAS BXD, Metro North and DART Underground.

Following the establishment of the National Transport Authority (NTA) on 1st December 2009, the provision of infrastructure projects in the Greater Dublin Area (GDA), such as LUAS BXD, Metro North and Dart Underground, now comes under the remit of the NTA.

A comprehensive review of capital expenditure, overseen by the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform, was carried out in 2011 and arising from this LUAS BXD was prioritised under the Government's new capital investment programme for transport to 2016 (Infrastructure and Capital Investment 2012-2016 - Medium Term Exchequer Framework). Metro North and DART Underground (DU) were postponed for review in 2015, in advance of the next Capital Programme.

In accordance with the Capital Appraisal Guidelines the relevant sponsoring agencies have carried out business cases in respect of all these projects. This was the RPA in the case of BXD and Metro North, and Iarnród Éireann in the case of Dart Underground. The three projects have also been independently reviewed.

The Detailed Business Case for Metro North was updated in December 2010 to take account of the An Bord Pleanála decision not to approve certain elements and to reduce the length of the line. This update by the RPA using a moderate growth scenario gave a cost ratio of 1.46:1 using traditional economic benefits and 1.89:1 when taking account of wider economic benefits. Under sensitivity tests a no growth scenario would deliver a BCR of 1.04 and the Local Authority (high) growth scenario a BCR of 1.98.

For Dart Underground the business case prepared in April 2010 for Irish Rail shows a BCR of 2.39:1 on a traditional transport appraisal in a moderate growth scenario (and 4.0 when wider benefits are included). In a no growth scenario, the BCR is 1.71:1 and in the high growth case, BCR is 3.2:1.

As the business cases for both Metro North and Dart Underground were completed by different agencies using different transport models and appraisal techniques, a direct comparison of the BCRs for these projects was difficult. The NTA, in conjunction with Indecon, carried out a full comparative analysis of Metro North and DART Underground.

Based on the Indecon comparison of 'standardised' individual business cases, Dart Underground comes out with a BCR of 2.21:1 versus 1.64:1 for Metro North. The relative performance of the two projects was further corroborated when both were appraised using the NTA transport model for both schemes.

An outline business case for Luas line BXD was completed in June 2009, using the RPA transport model. The BCR in that business case using a high growth scenario is 2.46:1 when the project is examined over a 30 year appraisal period. The no growth scenario in the business case is 1.26:1. (This business case will be updated following An Bord Pleanála's determination of the railway order application.)

During the audit of the Luas BXD business case, the RPA were requested to carry out an economic appraisal using the moderate growth scenario and this provided a BCR of 1.85:1 (based on conventional transport benefits).

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