Bernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
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Question 700: To ask the Minister for Health the number of persons deemed or expected to need full-time care annually over the next ten years on the basis of population trends; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [15638/12]

Kathleen Lynch (Cork North Central, Labour)
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I am assuming that this Question relates to Older People and not those with disabilities. Government policy is to support vulnerable older people to remain living at home and in their communities for as long as possible, or alternatively, to provide, where appropriate, access to high quality long term residential care. In this context, the Government is improving the planning, policy, and service delivery for older people. In particular, we will ensure that the Department of Health, the Health Service Executive, and all other relevant agencies, whether in the statutory or non-statutory sectors, implement the policies and services set out in the current Programme for Government, Government for National Recovery, 2011-2016. This includes completion of the National Positive Ageing Strategy which will set out the strategic direction for future policies and services by relevant Government Departments and agencies.

The various initiatives planned or underway will also have to take account of reform of our health and personal social services overall, including addressing the challenges and opportunities presented by changing demographics and care needs of older people in future years. This includes, for example, a projected significant increase in the population, in the coming decades, of those aged 65 and over. At present approximately 500,000 people, or 11% of the population, are over age 65. This is expected to rise to around 1 million by 2021, and to 1.4 million by 2041.

On current projections, therefore, the number of older people is expected to triple in the next 30 years. This could be used to extrapolate a tripling of requirement based on the current quantum of care provision. However, any forecasting would also have to take into account the effect of improving diagnostic and treatment options and their impact on morbidity, together with changes in lifestyle and the impact of assisted technologies

There are, at present, approximately 30,000 residential care beds nationally, including long-term and short-term care. There are 22,306 recipients in receipt of financial and other support towards the cost of long-term residential care. In addition, some 100,000 older people receive community based supports such as Home, Help, Home Care Packages, Meals-on-Wheels or Day Care. The projected increases in the number of vulnerable older people will, inevitably, result in additional demands for health and social care. This will have to be met in line with evolving service priorities and overall resource availability, and through a more focused approach to protecting the most vulnerable requiring care.