Written answers
Tuesday, 31 January 2012
Department of Finance
EU-IMF Programme
9:00 pm
Eric Byrne (Dublin South Central, Labour)
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Question 138: To ask the Minister for Finance in respect of Ireland's commitments under the EU-ECB-IMF troika deal, the methods that will be used to meet our targets under this deal in terms of our debt to GDP ratio for 2012, 2013 and 2014 in tabular form; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [5369/12]
Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
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Table 2.1 on page 20 of the Medium-Term Fiscal Statement outlines the amount of consolidation required over the period 2012-2015 to meet the targets agreed under the EU/IMF Programme – link: http://budget.gov.ie/budgets/2012/Documents/Medium%20Term%20Fiscal%20Statement%20November%202011.pdf
Technical General Government Deficit Projections and Amount of Consolidation Required to Achieve Targets
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | |
| % of GDP | ||||
| General Government Deficit Target – as set by ECOFIN Council | 8.6 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 |
| Projected General Government Deficit | 8.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.9 |
| € billions | ||||
| Total Consolidation Amount | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 |
| ExpenditureØ CurrentØ Capital | 2.21.450.75 | 2.251.700.55 | 2.01.90.1 | 1.31.30.0 |
| TaxØ New MeasuresØ Carry Forward | 1.61.00.6 * | 1.250.950.30 | 1.10.90.2 | 0.70.40.3 |
* The Universal Social Charge is also expected to deliver an additional €0.4 billion in revenues in 2012. While this is not part of the €3.8 billion consolidation package, it is captured in the budgetary projections.
Source: Department of Finance and Department of Public Expenditure and Reform
Rounding may affect totals
There were minor revisions to this information in Budget 2012 contained on pages D.16-17 and more detailed information was provided on the composition of revenue measures for the period 2013-2015 – link: http://budget.gov.ie/budgets/2012/Documents/Economic%20and%20Fiscal%20Outlook.pdf
Indicative Revenue Raising Measures 2013-2015
| € million | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | Total | |||
| c/f | New | c/f | New | c/f | New | ||
| Direct & Capital Taxes | 71 | 415 | 195 | 300 | 130 | 330 | 1,441 |
| Indirect Tax | 149 | 420 | 65 | 100 | 20 | 100 | 854 |
| Local Tax | 125 | 440 | 120 | 685 | |||
| Sub-Total | 220 | 960 | 260 | 840 | 150 | 550 | |
| Total (inclusive of c/fwd) | 1,180 | 1,100 | 700 | 2,980 |
Source: Department of Finance.
Rounding can affect totals.
As set out in the MTFS, revenue measures amounting to a cumulative €4.65 billion for the period 2012 to 2015 are envisaged. Taking account of the Budget 2012 measures Table 8 sets out the indicative path to achieve this overall total.
Revenue Consolidation Targets 2012-2015
| € billion | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | Total |
| MTFS Target | 1.6 | 1.25 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 4.65 |
| Post-Budget | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 4.65 |
Sources: Department of Finance.
Rounding can affect totals.
Taking into account the latest macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts as contained in Budget 2012, these consolidation measures would result in debt to GDP ratios for the period 2011-2015 as detailed in the table below. This information is also available in Annex II on page D.22 of Budget 2012 – link: http://budget.gov.ie/budgets/2012/Documents/Economic%20and%20Fiscal%20Outlook.pdf
General Government Debt Developments 2011-2015
| % of GDP | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Gross debt | 107 | 115 | 119 | 118 | 115 |
| Change in gross debt (=1+2+3) | 14.8 | 7.3 | 4.5 | -1.2 | -3.3 |
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