Written answers
Tuesday, 22 November 2011
Department of Finance
Fiscal Statement
8:00 pm
Pearse Doherty (Donegal South West, Sinn Fein)
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Question 129: To ask the Minister for Finance the impact of half a per cent growth reduction in 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 from the growth projections contained in the mid-term financial review and the impact this would have on our deficit to GDP ratio in 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [35965/11]
Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
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The Deputy should be aware that Chapter 5 of the Medium-Term Fiscal Statement sets out a range of different scenarios which show the estimated impact on the General Government balance/GDP ratio of both higher and lower nominal rates of economic growth. These are summarised in the table.
| General Government Balance (% of GDP) | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Base Case | -8.6 | -7.5 | -5.0 | -2.9 |
| Nominal GDP Growth 1% Lower | -9.1 | -8.7 | -6.7 | -5.0 |
| Nominal GDP Growth 2% Lower | -9.7 | -9.9 | -8.4 | -7.3 |
| Nominal GDP Growth 1% Higher | -8.0 | -6.4 | -3.4 | -0.8 |
| Nominal GDP Growth 2% Higher | -7.4 | -5.3 | -1.8 | +1.3 |
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