Michael Healy-Rae (Kerry South, Independent)
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Question 477: To ask the Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources if he will confirm that the current pace of development here is sufficient to meet our renewable energy targets (details supplied); and if he will make a statement on the matter. [23139/11]

Pat Rabbitte (Dublin South West, Labour)
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Under Directive 2009/28/EC, Ireland has been set a legally binding target for renewable energy as a percentage of all energy consumed by 2020. Our target is 16% and this is to be achieved across the transport, heating and electricity sectors. Our intention, as set out in the National Renewable Energy Action Plan, available on the Department's website www.dcenr.gov.ie is that the overall 16% target will be achieved with around 40% consumption in the electricity sector being from renewable sources, 10% in the transport sector and 12% in the heat sector.

Table 10 of the National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) sets out the trajectory for how the target would be achieved in the electricity sector. By 2020, the NREAP modelled scenario shows 5111MW of renewable generation comprising 75MW of wave and tidal generation; 153MW of biomass generation; 234MW of hydro generation and 4649MW of wind (4094MW of onshore wind and 555MW of offshore wind.) Appendix 1 of the NREAP details the basis on which the modelling was carried out.

Since the NREAP was drafted there have been further falls in projected demand for electricity. EirGrid's All Island Generation Capacity Statement 2011-2020 concludes that Ireland will need 4350MW of wind generation by 2020 (i.e. 299MW less than forecast in the NREAP). The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland's (SEAI's) Energy Forecasts for Ireland to 2020 (2010 Report), which was compiled after the NREAP, indicates that only 3843MW of wind generation will be required by 2020 (see Table 16).

The figures for each year supplied in the NREAP were based on a modelled trajectory towards the achievement of our target on the basis of the information known at the time. These figures will have changed since the NREAP was published, which relied largely on 2009 data. A first report on the NREAP is to be submitted to the European Commission at end 2011 and will include new figures, which on the basis of the information already available from EirGrid and the SEAI energy forecasts are likely to show a lower trajectory.

As of June 2011, there was 1459MW of wind generation connected to the grid, 234MW of hydro and 30MW of other renewable generation. A further 1150MW of renewable generation from Gate 1 and Gate 2 has contracted with EirGrid or ESB Networks and is awaiting connection over the next few years.

While the amount of new windfarms connected in 2010 was lower than expected, an improvement is expected in 2011. The Commission for Energy Regulation, EirGrid and ESB Networks have been continuing to roll out the Gate 3 grid connection offers comprising 3900MW of new renewable generation. EirGrid is also actively pursuing implementation of the Grid 25 programme.

Between the 1723MW of renewable generation currently connected, the 1150MW relating to Gate 1 and Gate 2 that has contracted for a new connection with the TSO or DSO and with the 3900MW of Gate 3 connection offers our renewable energy targets are still on track to be achieved by 2020.