Michael McGrath (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail)
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Question 112: To ask the Minister for Finance the nominal amount of GDP and GNP expected to be achieved in 2011 based on all currently available economic data; the way this compares to the expectation when the budget for 2011 was announced [22295/11]

Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
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In Budget 2011, the Department of Finance forecast nominal GDP to be €161,200 million and for nominal GNP to be €127,900 million in 2011 (figures rounded to nearest €100m). These forecasts also underpinned the National Recovery Plan that was finalised in October 2010. The Department's latest forecasts were published in the Stability Programme Update (SPU) of April 2011 and thus had the benefit of six months more economic data.

These data pointed, in the main, to weaker than expected domestic activity that would not be compensated for by somewhat stronger external demand. While the possibility of such an outturn was identified in Budget 2011, the fact that these risks had started to materialise meant that they were taken into account in the SPU. As such the forecasts for GDP and GNP for this year were revised down in April's SPU to €156,075 million and €125,925 respectively (rounded to the nearest €25m).

Revised forecasts will be published in the pre-Budget Outlook in the autumn.