Billy Timmins (Wicklow, Fine Gael)
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Question 87: To ask the Minister for Finance the economic growth rates for the years 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010; his forecast growth rates for the same periods; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [16304/11]

Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
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The table shows the Department of Finance's GDP forecasts for the period 2005 to 2010 as well as the outturns, as currently estimated by the CSO. The Department's forecasts are those presented at the time of the annual Budget. Also included in the table are the relevant projections made by other domestic and international institutions. For consistency, all forecast figures are taken from the Budget documentation published each December (or October in one case).

In the supplementary Budget for 2009, published in April 2009, my Department projected that GDP would contract by -7.7 per cent; the actual outturn was -7.6 per cent. As for 2010, notwithstanding continued high uncertainty, the accuracy of the Department of Finance's forecast was considerably better than those of some other institutions.

The Deputy will note that even in normal circumstances short-term economic forecasting is not an exact science, given the many dynamic components which constitute an economy.

While the Deputy asked for material from 2005, I would also point out that an analysis of my Departments macro-economic forecasts, contained in Budget 2006, showed that the Department of Finance's forecasts over the period 1997-2004 were amongst the most accurate of those produced by the major domestic and international economic forecasters.