Written answers

Wednesday, 28 April 2010

Photo of Aengus Ó SnodaighAengus Ó Snodaigh (Dublin South Central, Sinn Fein)
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Question 54: To ask the Minister for Finance if the EU has placed further demands on his Department to provide a renewed timeline for deficit reduction; or if the EU is still content with the projections provided by his Department in December 2009. [17095/10]

Photo of Brian Lenihan JnrBrian Lenihan Jnr (Dublin West, Fianna Fail)
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As part of the annual process the EU Commission recently issued its opinion on Ireland's Stability Programme Update. This, along with the other Member States programmes, was considered at Ecofin. Our Programme, which sets out our plan to have a General Government deficit below 3% of GDP by 2014, was welcomed. The Ecofin Council welcomed the substantial consolidation measures which we have undertaken and called on us to rigorously implement the budget for 2010. Therefore, the position remains as set out in the Ecofin Council recommendation of 2nd December 2009 which sets a deadline of 2014 to reduce the general government deficit below 3% of GDP in line with the Excessive Deficit Procedure of the Stability and Growth Pact.

Photo of Bernard DurkanBernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
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Question 55: To ask the Minister for Finance the extent to which he and his Department have analysed the full and likely impact on the national debt, economic recovery, current and future borrowing requirements and taxation arising from the recent reappraisal by EUROSTAT of Ireland's debt situation; the impact on borrowing costs; if a supplementary budget is planned arising from the now emerging situation; if any further reappraisal or recalculation of this country's economic position is likely; the way the likely increased liability on the State is to be met in the short to medium term; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [17272/10]

Photo of Brian Lenihan JnrBrian Lenihan Jnr (Dublin West, Fianna Fail)
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I take it that the Deputy is referring to the publication last week by Eurostat of Member States fiscal data, including that for Ireland. This publication was based on the most recent Irish fiscal return made to Eurostat. As the Deputy will be aware, all Member States report to Eurostat twice a year in September and March on their fiscal position.

In Budget 2010, my Department estimated that the General Government Deficit for 2009 would be 11.7 per cent of GDP. The estimate for the headline deficit for 2009 has now been revised to 14.3 per cent of GDP. The difference between these two estimates is 2.6 per cent of GDP, of which 2.5 per cent of GDP relates to the technical reclassification of the €4 billion transfer to Anglo Irish Bank made in 2009. It is important to note that on foot of this reclassification, no additional borrowing has taken place and the underlying position of a deficit of 11.8 per cent of GDP for 2009 is broadly the same as that published in the Budget last December. This technical reclassification has a once off impact on the headline deficit. As such, it does not affect the Government's forecasts for the level of debt, or the forecasts for debt servicing costs, as the €4 billion had already been taken account of in the budgetary debt position. Furthermore, the fiscal consolidation plan as set out in the Budget is not impacted by the reclassification.

My Department's also published a forecast for the General Government deficit in 2010 last week. The General Government Deficit is still forecast to be some 111⁄2 per cent of GDP in 2010 - this is in line with the forecast published in the Budget. The most recently published fiscal data in relation to 2010, the Exchequer returns for the first quarter of the year, were broadly in line with the projections as set out in the Budget.

The Exchequer Deficit at end-March 2010 was €3.9 billion compared to €3.7 billion at end-March 2009. My Department published monthly targets for both tax revenue and net voted expenditure earlier this year. In relation to tax revenue performance, €7.2 billion in tax receipts were collected by the end of March. This was 15 per cent below the same period in 2009 and was €266 million, or 31⁄2 per cent below target. A significant year-on-year decline is expected in the initial months of 2010, with tax revenues forecast to end the year 6 per cent down on 2009. The overall tax revenue target for 2010 is just over €31 billion and based on the information available so far this year, this target remains valid.

Total net voted expenditure at end-March 2010 was €10.7 billion, representing a decline of some €1.1 billion or 9.2 per cent on the same period in 2009. This significant year-on-year reduction reflects both the expenditure policy changes which the Government has implemented and also, to a lesser extent, timing issues. The Revised Estimates Volume, published on 18 February, projected a 1.9 per cent reduction in total net voted spending for 2010 as a whole. In overall terms it is clear that the budgetary policy decisions taken by the Government are having the intended impact on the public finances and I have no reason to adjust the budgetary targets and the requirement for a Supplementary budget does not arise.

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