Written answers

Thursday, 3 December 2009

Department of Finance

Exchequer Returns

5:00 am

Photo of Charles FlanaganCharles Flanagan (Laois-Offaly, Fine Gael)
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Question 21: To ask the Minister for Finance the impact of the November Exchequer returns on the budgetary arithmetic for 2010; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [44809/09]

Photo of Liz McManusLiz McManus (Wicklow, Labour)
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Question 58: To ask the Minister for Finance his views on the November 2009 Exchequer returns published on 2 December 2009; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [44868/09]

Photo of Brian Lenihan JnrBrian Lenihan Jnr (Dublin West, Fianna Fail)
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I propose to take Questions Nos. 21 and 58 together.

The Exchequer Returns for the period to end-November, which were published yesterday, showed an Exchequer deficit of €22.1 billion. This compared to a deficit of €7.9 billion for the same period last year. The deterioration reflects an €8.1 billion decline in tax receipts along with a €4 billion capital injection for Anglo Irish Bank and the bringing forward of next year's contribution to the NPRF to facilitate the recapitalisation of AIB and Bank of Ireland. Total voted expenditure was 1.6 per cent below profile at end-November, but it is expected that this shortfall on target will be reduced by year-end.

As the Deputy is aware, November is a key month for tax revenue and while still below my Department's forecasts, receipts were not as weak as had been feared in some quarters. By the end of November, approximately €30.8 billion in tax revenue had been collected, which was €1.4 billion or 4.2 per cent lower than profiled. This represented a 21 per cent decline on what was collected in the same period last year.

In particular, November is a significant month for Income Tax, as returns from the self-employed are received and these were broadly on target, leaving Income Tax €50 million above profile for the month of November. However, it should be noted that revenues were still substantially below the level collected last year, with receipts from the self-employed being down by approximately €379 million or 32 per cent and overall Income Tax is showing a €1.3 billion or 10 per cent decline in the year to date. The bulk of the remaining shortfall is accounted for by VAT which was €749 million below profile at end-November, reflecting the continued weakness in consumer spending. Overall, tax receipts are now €1.4 billion behind target.

While the slightly better than anticipated tax performance in November is welcome, it does not in any way lessen the need for action on the Government's part. Taxes are still weaker than was forecast at that time and will likely finish the year around €1.8 billion below target.

This small improvement on the tax shortfall from that anticipated in the Pre-Budget Outlook must be kept in context. Taxes are still down by almost €14 billion on the same point in 2007 and are going to finish the year at a level that has not been lower since 2003. As the Deputy knows, in that time current expenditure has risen by 70 per cent. This is simply not sustainable.

We are borrowing to fill the gap between revenue and expenditure and failing to take action now means that our debt levels will increase further and consequently the cost of servicing that debt will rise. The objective of the forthcoming Budget must be to stabilise the deficit in 2010. Taking the necessary action now will ensure that confidence is maintained in the Irish economy and that Ireland is favourably placed to benefit from a global recovery as it takes hold.

As is customary, I do not propose to comment in advance of the Budget on any matters that might be the subject of Budget decisions. However, the White Paper on Receipts and Expenditure, which sets out the likely end-year position for 2009 and the no-policy change opening position for 2010, will be published on 5 December. Full economic and fiscal forecasts on a post-budget basis will be published on Budget day, 9 December.

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