Bernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
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Question 77: To ask the Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government the extent to which he expects to meet emission targets in respect of EU climate change or Kyoto guidelines; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [42971/09]

John Gormley (Dublin South East, Green Party)
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In the period 2008-2012, Ireland is required to meet a challenging greenhouse gas emission reduction target under the Kyoto Protocol; this target is binding in international law. In addition, by 2020, Ireland is committed under the EU climate and energy package agreed in December 2008 to achieve a 20% reduction on 2005 levels of greenhouse gas emissions in the sectors of the economy not covered by the EU emissions trading scheme. This 20% target is binding in EU law, as will any adjustment to it in the light of the outcome to the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in Copenhagen in December 2009.

The EPA is responsible for emission projections. Its most recent analysis based on the ESRI's Economic Shock scenario indicates a distance to target for the Kyoto period 2008-2012 in the range of 1.3 -1.8 million tonnes per annum. Based on these figures and with full implementation of all announced emission reduction measures, the purchasing requirement to ensure Kyoto compliance would be between 6.5 and 9 million carbon credits.

Under the Carbon Fund Act 2007, the National Treasury Management Agency has been designated as purchasing agent for carbon credits for the State. To date the agency has purchased 5.255 million credits. In addition, investments made by my Department in Carbon Funds operated by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank are expected to yield some 3 million credits during the five–year Kyoto Protocol commitment period 2008 – 2012.

In the current economic climate an unusually high degree of uncertainty attaches to all projections. It is now clear that the economic contraction will be deeper than assumed in the ESRI's scenario. It is quite possible that Ireland will now meet its Kyoto target for the non-trading sector without using carbon credits. In the circumstances, the National Treasury Management Agency has been asked to put its purchasing programme on hold for the foreseeable future. Purchasing requirements to ensure Kyoto compliance are being kept under review and will be revised as necessary in the light of future projections. If it transpires that more credits have been bought than are needed they can be carried forward for use after 2012 in the next commitment period.