Liz McManus (Wicklow, Labour)
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Question 145: To ask the Minister for Finance his views on the September 2009 Exchequer figures; the way the September 2009 figures compare to profiles forecast six months ago; if he expects tax revenue to fall below 20% of gross domestic product for 2009; his further views on whether this proportion is expected to be the lowest of any OECD member; if he expects a significant amount of net emigration over the 2009 to 2010 period; the way he expects emigration trends to impact on tax revenues over this period; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [37677/09]

Kieran O'Donnell (Limerick East, Fine Gael)
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Question 280: To ask the Minister for Finance the updated tax yields for the months of October, November and December 2009; the way this compares to the previously forecasted yields for these months; if he will provide this information in tabular form under individual headings for each of the relevant taxes; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [38089/09]

Brian Lenihan Jnr (Dublin West, Fianna Fail)
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I propose to take Questions Nos. 145 and 280 together.

At the end of September, €23.7 billion in tax revenue receipts had been collected. This was €965 million below the profile target for the first nine months of the year that was outlined in April. The Supplementary Budget forecast that total tax revenue in 2009 would total €34.4 billion. At the publication of the end-September Exchequer Returns, my Department stated that it now expects that tax revenue receipts in 2009 will be in the region of €2 billion below forecast.

The end-October Exchequer Returns will be published this afternoon. Tax revenue receipts have continued to show some weakness, but are broadly in line with what was anticipated.

Trends in incoming tax receipts are continually analysed by my Department and the prospective end-year outturn kept under constant review. At the aggregate level, taxes in the region of €32 billion – back to 2003 levels – are now thought likely for the year as a whole. Set out below are the original end-monthly totals for tax revenue for the months of October, November and December.

In relation to migration matters, net outward migration was recorded in the year to April 2009, the first time this has happened since 1995. My Department is expecting further net outward migration over the remainder of this year and for this to continue in 2010. This is in line with the views of many other forecasting institutions.

Migration affects taxation revenue through a number of channels, such as lower levels of personal consumption and lower levels of employment. The impact of these developments on tax-heads such as VAT, Excise and Income Tax is included in forecasts of these tax-heads.

The Pre-Budget Outlook, which my Department plans to publish in mid-November, will provide an update on the macroeconomic outlook and set out a technical fiscal forecast.