Jan O'Sullivan (Limerick East, Labour)
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Question 138: To ask the Minister for Finance if he will comment on the most recent Central Statistics Office Quarterly National Accounts which showed a decline of 7.4% of Gross Domestic Product, and a decline of 11.6% of GNP, in the first six months of 2009 compared to the same period in 2008; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [37684/09]

Brian Lenihan Jnr (Dublin West, Fianna Fail)
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The Central Statistics Office published national accounts data for the second quarter of 2009 at the end of September. These data show that GDP and GNP fell at an annual rate of 7.4 and 11.6 per cent, respectively, in the second quarter of this year. Combined with the first quarter data, the figures show that the annual rate of decline in the first half of the year was 8.4 per cent in GDP terms and 12.4 per cent in GNP terms.

The sharp declines in housing output and in personal spending were the main reasons for the contraction in the second quarter. While these results are poor, one positive feature of the data is that the rate of export decline was not as large as that in many other export-oriented economies.

Data which have been published since then suggest that the rate of contraction has slowed in the intervening period. As a result, the forecast for a GDP contraction of 73⁄4 per cent this year contained in the April Supplementary Budget remains broadly valid. My Department will publish in mid-November the Pre-Budget Outlook and that will set out a revised macroeconomic outlook. At this stage I envisage only a minor revision to the Department's estimate for GDP for this year.