Bernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
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Question 53: To ask the Minister for Finance the extent to which the various budgets he has produced in the past 12 months have proven to be on target in terms of accurately projecting revenue from the various forms or taxation, economic growth, job losses or gains and the housing market; if he is satisfied that current projections are likely to be sufficiently accurate to address in full the current and expected economic situation; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [27867/09]

Eamon Gilmore (Dún Laoghaire, Labour)
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Question 71: To ask the Minister for Finance his most up to date forecast budget deficit for the year to 31 December 2009, including projected capital injections into the banking system; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [27967/09]

Liz McManus (Wicklow, Labour)
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Question 86: To ask the Minister for Finance his views on the June 2009 Exchequer figures; the way the June 2009 figures compare to profiles forecast; if he is confident that tax revenue will amount to €34.4 billion for 2009; if he expects a significant amount of net emigration over the 2009 to 2010 period; the way he expects emigration trends to impact on tax revenues over this period; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [27963/09]

Brian Lenihan Jnr (Dublin West, Fianna Fail)
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I propose to take Questions Nos. 53, 71 and 86 together.

The Supplementary Budget forecast that total tax revenue for the year would amount to €34.4 billion. Monthly profiles for individual tax-heads were published at the end of April.

The end-June Exchequer Returns showed that in the first half of the year total tax revenues of €15.8 billion were collected. At this stage, tax revenues are broadly on target with the Supplementary Budget forecast of €34.4 billion while expenditure is running approximately €500 million behind profile. Overall, taxes are €188 million or 1.2 per cent below profile. While this is close to target, significant sums remained to be collected in the second half of the year and the performance of Income Tax and VAT receipts in particular, will need to be monitored closely.

The Supplementary Budget forecast an Exchequer deficit of €20.35 billion. This figure allowed for a €3 billion front-loading of 2009 and 2010's contributions to the National Pension Reserve Fund, as part of the bank recapitalisation programme. In addition, the Government has since agreed a capital injection of up to €4 billion into Anglo Irish Bank, €3 billion of which was paid in June. Allowing for the full €4 billion capital injection increases the Exchequer deficit to a sum of almost €241⁄2 billion. However, while the injections of capital into the banking system will impact upon the forecast Exchequer Balance, they do not impact upon the General Government Balance as the investment is considered a financial transaction and does not count as expenditure under GGB accounting rules. Hence, the forecast 2009 General Government Deficit of €18.4 billion that was published in the Supplementary Budget is still valid.

In the supplementary Budget, my Department projected that GDP would contract by 7.7 per cent this year, that employment would fall by 7.8 per cent and that unemployment would average 12.6 per cent. These forecasts have been acknowledged as being robust and realistic by external commentators and are largely in line with the current market consensus. In addition, the data which have been published since the April Budget are broadly in line with these forecasts.

Net outward migration is, for the most part, due to the deterioration in the labour market. The main channels through which migration impacts on tax revenue are through the labour market and consumption. In addition, outward migration is one of the reasons why overall consumption levels are projected to decline both this year and next, which has negative implications for VAT and excise receipts. The Supplementary Budget tax projections factor in a reduction in consumption and an employment loss of 7.8 per cent this year and 4.6 per cent next year. My Department is assuming net outward migration for both this year and next, and quarterly national household survey data published at the end of June provide some evidence that this is indeed the case.

At the half-way point in the year, both expenditure and revenue are still broadly on profile. However, the Supplementary Budget targets for the second half of 2009 remain challenging and the performance of both will have to be monitored extremely closely in the coming months.

My Department will publish updated economic and fiscal forecasts in the Pre-Budget Outlook in the autumn.