Mary Upton (Dublin South Central, Labour)
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Question 128: To ask the Minister for Finance the expected impact on the 2009 Exchequer position of the live register reaching 500,000 by the end of 2009; the expected impact on the 2010 Exchequer position, with reference to forecasts made on the occasion of the supplementary budget of 7 April 2009, of the unemployment rate averaging 16.8% in 2010 as forecast by the ESRI; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [18976/09]

Brian Lenihan Jnr (Dublin West, Fianna Fail)
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In the recent budget, survey based employment was projected to fall by 7.8% this year and by 4.6 % next year. As a result unemployment on this basis was forecast to rise to 12.6 % this year and to 15.5 % next year.

While not designed to measure unemployment, trends in the live register provide an indication as to the more recent labour market trends. The latest figures refer to April and show a seasonally adjusted 389,000 on the live register and a standardised unemployment rate of 11.4 %.

The fiscal projections in the recent budget are based on the assumption that the number on the live register averages 440,000 this year. Implied in this projection is the assumption that the number on the live register exceeds 500,000 by end year. In terms of 2010, the current working assumption is that given the weak economic outlook, unemployment will continue to rise and an average unemployment rate of 15.5% has been factored into my Department's recently published forecasts and provided for in the macroeconomic and fiscal framework released with the supplementary budget documentation.

I am aware of the recent forecasts made by the ESRI. For unemployment next year the ESRI figure is at the upper end of the range of forecasts; the current consensus among economic forecasters is that unemployment at the end of 2010 will be 15.4 %.