Jan O'Sullivan (Limerick East, Labour)
Link to this: Individually | In context

Question 97: To ask the Minister for Finance his views on the fact that the EU Commission published economic forecasts, so soon after the 7 April 2009 budget, to the effect that the general Government balance would reach 15.6% of GDP in 2010; his further views on this analysis; if he has been in contact with the EU Commission in respect of these forecasts; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [18962/09]

Brian Lenihan Jnr (Dublin West, Fianna Fail)
Link to this: Individually | In context

New economic forecasts were issued by the European Commission on May 4th last. The forecast by the Commission of a General Government Balance (GGB) deficit of 15.6% of GDP in 2010 was made on the assumption of no-policy-change. However, the Supplementary Budget of April 7th contained provisions for additional tax and expenditure measures which it is estimated will yield €4 billion in 2010. Additionally, the Commission forecast for nominal GDP in 2010 is also lower than my Department's forecast and is thus also a contributory factor in the higher GGB to GDP ratio forecast by the Commission for 2010.

The forecast for a General Government deficit of -10 3⁄4% of GDP for 2010, published in the Supplementary Budget, and taking account of additional policy measures, still stands. Finally, the measures set out in the Supplementary Budget which are designed to bring the deficit below 3% of GDP by end 2013 have been welcomed by the European Commission and by the Finance Ministers of our fellow euro area Member States.