Joanna Tuffy (Dublin Mid West, Labour)
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Question 77: To ask the Minister for Finance his views on the suggestion the bank rescue plans here could be the highest, as a proportion of national income, of any developed economy; his further views on the fact that the final cost of bailing out the banks could be more than €20 billion; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [18974/09]

Brian Lenihan Jnr (Dublin West, Fianna Fail)
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I assume the Deputy is referring to a suggestion which has been attributed to the IMF's Global Financial Stability Report, April 2009.

I am of the opinion that these figures should not be relied on as a measure of costs for Ireland.

The particular figures appear to be based on more or less mechanical application of various modelling tools, with a heavy reliance on technical assumptions some of which are questionable in Ireland's case. The IMF itself says that forecasts of these costs are subject to significant uncertainty and will depend on the evolution of the financial sector. The estimates do not represent the outcome of a specific examination of Irish banks' assets.

The principal reason the IMF approach gives a relatively high figure for Ireland is that our formal legal bank guarantee arrangement is broader-ranging than that in other countries - though other countries have made political commitments that are just as wide ranging - and our financial sector is larger relative to the economy.

Obviously we are open at all times to discussion with international institutions about technical assumptions they apply to the Irish case, but in the current case we are far from convinced that there is significant new or additional informational value in the figures presented, from a national point of view.