Fergus O'Dowd (Louth, Fine Gael)
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Question 20: To ask the Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government his views on Ireland's Kyoto carbon reduction target and progress to date taking into account current economic circumstances; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [18251/09]

John Gormley (Dublin South East, Green Party)
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In my Carbon Budget presentation in October 2008, I included projections published by the EPA in September 2008. As these projections were based on economic growth forecasts which were quickly overtaken by events, the EPA was asked to apply a sensitivity analysis which might better reflect the changed economic situation. This analysis, based on the ESRI's Economic Shock scenario, was published in March 2009. The updated figures indicated a Distance to Target for the Kyoto period 2008-2012 in the range of 1.3-1.8 million tonnes per annum, a reduction of around 3 million tonnes from the projections of last Autumn.

In the current economic climate, an unusually high degree of uncertainty attaches to all projections. It is now clear that the economic contraction will be deeper than assumed in the ESRI's about-mentioned scenario. It is quite possible that Ireland will now meet its Kyoto target for the non-trading sector without using carbon credits. It is important to emphasise that the effect of the recession on our emissions is a short-term one and it would be a serious mistake to ease off on our efforts to address the underlying trend. When economic growth resumes, so too will our emissions, growth unless we have the measures in place to reduce business. The Government remains focused on this work through the Cabinet Committee on Climate Change and Energy Security, the most recent meeting of which took place just last week.