Ruairi Quinn (Dublin South East, Labour)
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Question 31: To ask the Minister for Finance his views on recent economic forecasts (details supplied) to the effect that unemployment could reach 16% by end of 2010, that house prices could undergo a 40% peat-to-trough decline and that national income is expected to decline by some 8% in 2009 and a further 3.5% in 2020; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [12314/09]

Brian Lenihan Jnr (Dublin West, Fianna Fail)
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I understand the Deputy is referring to a recent economic forecast produced by Ulster Bank in which they anticipate a very large contraction in growth with unemployment rising to the levels mentioned in the question.

I would point out that there is a wide range of economic forecasts produced by a variety of financial institutions regarding the likely outcome for this year. In this regard, the market consensus at end-February was for GDP to contract by 41⁄2% this year and by 13⁄4% next year. The market is forecasting unemployment to reach 131⁄2% by the end of next year. The consensus is also for house prices to decline by an average of 10% this year and by 5% next year.

My Department will publish revised economic growth and labour market forecasts in the supplementary budget next month. Irrespective of what the forecasts are, it is clear that a large fall in economic activity is in prospect and that unemployment is going to rise substantially. Figures published this morning by the Central Statistics Office give an indication as to the scale of the difficulties.