Ruairi Quinn (Dublin South East, Labour)
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Question 72: To ask the Minister for Finance his views on recent trends in live register figures and the latest quarterly household employment survey; if he will revise his forecast of average unemployment for 2009, from the 7.3% forecast on Budget 2009 day; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [45360/08]

Brian Lenihan Jnr (Dublin West, Fianna Fail)
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The latest Live Register figures relate to November 2008, when the number of people on the Register reached 277,200 on a seasonally-adjusted basis. This represents an annual increase of 106,800. This corresponds to a standardised unemployment rate of 7.8%. Both the scale and the speed of the deterioration point to the continued difficult economic conditions pertaining.

The latest Quarterly National Household Survey data relate to the third quarter of this year. These data show that employment declined at an annual rate of 1.2% in the third quarter, the first decline in employment since the early 1990s. Unemployment on a QNHS basis rose to 6.3% in the third quarter, once adjustment is made for seasonal factors.

The Budget day forecast for unemployment to average 7.3% next year was based on the assumption that while employment would decline, there would be some easing in the growth of labour supply, brought about by lower participation rates and lower rates of migration. However, as I have already said in response to an earlier question, my Department is in the light of the recent negative information revising downwards its macroeconomic forecasts. While that assessment is not finalised yet, I expect that the Department's view of the labour market will reflect the worsening economic position now emerging.