Bernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
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Question 24: To ask the Minister for Finance if he is satisfied that his budgetary projections for 2009 are likely to be accurate in view of the obvious miscalculations for 2008; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [38698/08]

Bernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
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Question 105: To ask the Minister for Finance the extent to which he can rely on his budgetary projections for accuracy over the next 12 months in view of his experience for 2008; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [39148/08]

Brian Lenihan Jnr (Dublin West, Fianna Fail)
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I propose to take Questions Nos. 24 and 105 together.

The budgetary forecasts by my Department in Budget 2009 were based on the best information available at the time. For 2009 the Budget forecast a General Government Balance of -61⁄2% of GDP based on tax revenue growth of 1% and gross voted expenditure growth of 1.8%.

Since Budget Day my Department has published the October Exchequer Returns which showed an Exchequer deficit of just over €11 billion for the first ten months of the year, including a tax shortfall of almost €4.3 billion.

As I have indicated previously, November is a key month for tax collection. While in the ten months to end-October, the tax shortfall is almost €4.3 billion, my Department expects that a further shortfall of the order of €21⁄4 billion will materialise in the final two months of the year.

While tax receipts in October have continued the poor performance of recent months, they are nonetheless broadly in line with what was anticipated when formulating the end year estimated outturn that underpinned the Budget. In overall terms, the assumed shortfall for the year is approximately €61⁄2 billion and this has not been revised in light of the October tax data.

Budget 2009 forecast tax receipts of almost €42.8 billion in 2009, which represents revenue growth of approximately 1% as a result of significant revenue raising measures introduced in the Budget.