Martin Ferris (Kerry North, Sinn Fein)
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Question 18: To ask the Minister for Finance if his Department is revising Irish GDP and GNP forecasts in view of the GDP figures in the USA and Britain; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [38667/08]

Brian Lenihan Jnr (Dublin West, Fianna Fail)
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The Budget day forecasts are for GDP to decline by 11⁄4 per cent this year, with GNP forecast to contract by 11⁄2 per cent. In terms of next year, GDP is forecast to decline by 3⁄4 per cent, while GNP is projected to decline by 1 per cent. The Budget day forecasts have not changed.

In preparing these forecasts my Department considered the growth prospects in several of our major trading partners, including the United States and the United Kingdom. Growth in these countries is slowing and is projected to slow further in 2009.

A greater-than-normal level of uncertainty is attached to the economic outlook given the highly unusual prevailing environment. A number of downside risks to the economic outlook were identified on Budget day including the possibility that the global financial market problems would persist, a more prolonged downturn in our major trading partners, the possibility of further exchange rate appreciation and a sharper than assumed decline in the residential sector. My Department continues to monitor developments and advises accordingly.