Written answers
Thursday, 6 November 2008
Department of Finance
Exchequer Borrowing
5:00 pm
Tommy Broughan (Dublin North East, Labour)
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Question 65: To ask the Minister for Finance the forecast Exchequer borrowing requirement for the years 2008, 2009 and 2010; the discussions he or his Department officials have had with the EU institutions with regard to the possible launch of an excessive deficit procedure; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [38808/08]
Brian Lenihan Jnr (Dublin West, Fianna Fail)
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The projections for the years 2008, 2009 and 2010 for the Exchequer Balance and the General Government Balance, the latter being the relevant measure in the context of the Stability and Growth Pact, are detailed in Table 1 "Summary of Current and Capital Budgets 2008 to 2011" in the Budget 2009 publication and are as follows:
| 2008 Post-Budget | 2009 Projection Forecast | 2010 Projection | |
| €m | €m | €m | |
| Exchequer Balance | -11,510 | -13,412 | -11,237 |
| General Government Balance | -10,375 | -12,162 | -9,311 |
| GGB as % of GDP | -5.5% | -6.5% | -4.7% |
| Note: The General Government Balance (GGB) measures the fiscal performance of all arms of Government, e.g. Central Government, Local Authorities, Vocational Education Committees and non-commercial State sponsored bodies, as well as funds such as the Social Insurance Fund and the National Pensions Reserve Fund. It thus provides an accurate assessment of the fiscal performance of a more complete "government" sector. The GGB does not reflect the position of commercial State sponsored bodies as these agencies are classified as being outside the General Government Sector. |
We have been keeping the European Commission informed about economic and fiscal developments in Ireland and I briefed Commissioner Almunia on the emerging situation in September. I have also provided my colleagues at Eurogroup and ECOFIN with an outline of the evolving budgetary position. The European Commission's autumn Economic Forecast published on 3 November indicates that a number of countries are expected to breach the 3% reference value over the next three years. The Commission has indicated that it now proposes to initiate an Excessive Deficit Procedure for Ireland in the light of the projected general government deficit of 5.5% of GDP for 2008. This is the norm for countries exceeding the 3% reference value and it begins a process that will lead to consideration by the Commission and the Ecofin Council of the position in the coming months. As part of that process there have also been exchanges with the Commission at official level in relation to the factors which might be considered relevant in their consideration of the Irish situation.
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