Written answers

Thursday, 30 October 2008

Department of Agriculture and Food

World Trade Negotiations

6:00 pm

Photo of Alan ShatterAlan Shatter (Dublin South, Fine Gael)
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Question 14: To ask the Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food if his attention has been drawn to the recent study produced by Teagasc on the impact of World Trade Organisation negotiations on Irish agriculture and the particularly negative impact proposals would have on the beef industry and consequently agricultural income; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [37500/08]

Photo of Brendan SmithBrendan Smith (Cavan-Monaghan, Fianna Fail)
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FAPRI-Ireland, in association with its research partner Teagasc, launched two reports on 29 September, 2008, one of which is an analysis of the impact of a possible WTO deal, and, a second report, which provides an outlook for Irish and EU agriculture markets using 2008 as the baseline and assuming a status quo policy view over the next ten years. FAPRI's report presents an analysis of the possible impact of a World Trade Organisation (WTO) deal along the lines of the proposals made last February by the Chairman of the WTO agriculture Committee and assesses the likely impact of such a deal by comparing what would happen if there was a deal with what would happen without it in the period up to 2017.

They looked at two possible WTO deals — one where beef was declared a sensitive product, and therefore had a tariff cut of 23%, and another where beef suffered the full 70% tariff cut. The key findings are that Irish farmers would have suffered an income loss of 5% (€128m) per annum if beef was declared sensitive or 13% (€319m) if it took the full tariff cut. Unsurprisingly, they found that the sectors experiencing the biggest losses from the tariff reductions were beef and sheepmeat. They estimate that beef production would be 507,000 tonnes in 2017 without a WTO deal but this would fall to 502,000 tonnes if there was a deal with sensitive product status, or 491,000 tonnes with the full tariff cut.

The FAPRI reports provide very thorough, independent analysis on the impact of a WTO deal on Irish agriculture and on the outcome for agriculture in the absence of a deal. It is clear that the analysis and econometric model used has some limitations but the reports are very credible and professional pieces of work. As the member will be aware, no WTO agreement was reached in the July Ministerial and it is a widely held view that it will be difficult to conclude a deal in 2008 or 2009. As to the current position in relation to the beef sector, while Irish beef prices have risen considerably in 2008, due to the effective ban on Brazilian beef imports in the EU, it would appear that the absence of Brazilian beef from the EU market is set to continue into 2009, and in the short term it is expected that this will support EU and Irish cattle prices at levels close to those in 2008.

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