Ulick Burke (Galway East, Fine Gael)
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Question 14: To ask the Minister for Finance his latest assessment of the end of year figure for the numbers out of work, the shortfall in tax revenue, the Exchequer deficits and the rate of increase in the Consumer Price Index; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [31457/08]

Brian Lenihan Jnr (Dublin West, Fianna Fail)
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In early July my Department published a technical economic update which set out forecasts for 2008, based on the latest information available at that time. On this basis, unemployment was expected to average 5.8% or in numbers terms some 132,000 during 2008. This compares to unemployment of 4.5% or 101,000 in 2007.

My Department last published inflation forecasts on July 2nd as part of the Technical Update of Current Year Macroeconomic Forecast. This set out its expectation that CPI inflation would average 4.3 per cent for 2008. Since then the ECB announced a quarter percentage point increase in interest rates. Factoring this in would imply a CPI inflation rate of 4.5 per cent for 2008 as a whole. Updated inflation forecasts for the period out to 2011 will be published as part of Budget 2009.

At the end of this month, as is usual, my Department will make its six monthly return to Eurostat setting out the overall fiscal position, including the General Government Balance for the years up to 2007 and my Department's forecast for 2008. This forecast will take account of the latest fiscal information available at that time.

In announcing the bringing forward of Budget 2009, I stated that my Department's latest assessment indicated a tax shortfall significantly in excess of that previously expected for 2008. September is a key month for tax revenue and while we do not have full month data yet, early indications suggest that the poor performance in tax receipts witnessed over the summer months is continuing. My Department is closely monitoring overall tax performance in the run-up to the Budget.

My Department will publish an updated view on expected tax and Exchequer positions at the end of this quarter. A comprehensive assessment of the fiscal and economic position will be contained in the Budget which will be published on 14 October 2008. As is normal, I will not comment on the contents of the Budget in advance of that date.