Written answers

Wednesday, 9 July 2008

Department of Health and Children

Health Services

11:00 pm

Photo of Tom HayesTom Hayes (Tipperary South, Fine Gael)
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Question 120: To ask the Minister for Health and Children her views on the fact that by 2050, studies estimate that one in four people here will be over 65; and if future health services are being planned accordingly. [27816/08]

Photo of Tom HayesTom Hayes (Tipperary South, Fine Gael)
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Question 151: To ask the Minister for Health and Children the number of people currently aged over 90 here; the information she is in possession of with regard to the predicted number of people who will be over 90 years of age in 2020 and by 2050; the impact this trend will have on health-care requirements here; the way this will impact on residential care for older people; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [27933/08]

Photo of Máire HoctorMáire Hoctor (Tipperary North, Fianna Fail)
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I propose to take Questions Nos. 120 and 151 together.

There are currently just under 470,000 older people in Ireland equating to 11% of the total population. Of these, just over 48,000 are aged 85 years or older. Irish population projections suggest that the over 65 population will increase to over 740,000, or 14.6% of the total population, by 2020 and to over 1.53 million or 29% of the population by 2056. Within this, the increase of greatest magnitude is anticipated in relation to the numbers aged 85 years and over. The number of people in this latter category is set to increase to almost 75,000 in 2020 and to 305,112 by 2056 — an almost seven-fold increase on current levels. It is in this age group that the greatest need for long-term care can be expected.

In addition, the Deputy may wish to note that the recent Population and Labour Force Projections published by the Central Statistics Office predict that male life expectancy will increase from 76.7 years in 2005 to 86.5 years in 2041 while female life expectancy will increase from 81.5 years in 2005 to 88.2 years in 2041.

Secondly, the Deputy has asked how the demographic trends outlined above will affect future health care and residential care requirements. The demand for health and long-term care services will increase on foot of demographic trends. In relation to residential care, over 4.7% of older people are presently in long-term residential care. Even with a commitment to reduce this to 4% through sustained investment in community care services, it is estimated that the overall numbers in residential nursing home care will go up to 44,000 in 2036 and 61,000 in 2056.

In the latest social partnership agreement, Towards 2016, the government and the social partners respond to future demographic trends by agreeing a number of important principles in relation to policy on long-term care for older people. In particular, the partners agree to work together to develop an infrastructure of long-term care services for older people. They further agree that the financial model to support any new arrangements must be financially sustainable. Preliminary work has been undertaken in this regard and it is hoped to progress this work through the aegis of the Interdepartmental Working Group on Long-term Care.

The preliminary work indicates that consideration of future demand for health and long-term care services is extremely complex. It is not just a question of ageing but rather of healthy, positive ageing. Factors such as diet, lifestyle and healthcare innovations will all play a role in determining disability-free life expectancy and resulting demand for services. To this end, one of my key priorities as Minister for Older People will be to draw up and implement a Strategy for Positive Ageing.

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