Bernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
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Question 184: To ask the Minister for Finance if he is satisfied that economic growth projections for 2008 are expected to be achieved; the extent to which revenue from taxation is expected to be affected by fluctuations; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [22293/08]

Brian Lenihan Jnr (Dublin West, Fianna Fail)
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On Budget day, GDP was forecast to rise by 3% this year, with GNP forecast to rise by 2.8 %. However, in framing these forecasts a number of downside risks to the economic outlook were identified. These risks included the possibility of a sharper slowdown in the US, the possibility of adverse exchange rate movements, the possibility that financial market difficulties could persist for longer than assumed and the possibility of a sharper contraction in new house building.

It now appears that most of these risks have materialised and in this regard other economic commentators that produce forecasts on a more frequent basis have revised their forecasts downwards. The current market consensus is for GDP growth of around 2 per cent this year. My Department continues to monitor developments and advises accordingly.

More modest growth has implications for the evolution of the public finances. At end-April, my Department published information which showed that overall tax receipts for the first four months of the year were €736 million, or 5.3%, behind target. At the time it was indicated that it was not expected that the tax shortfall would be recouped. Later today, as is the norm, my Department will publish detailed information in relation to the Exchequer position at end-May. In relation to tax revenue, these numbers will show a further deterioration in taxes and as previously indicated the shortfall is not expected to be recouped later in the year. My Department monitors tax receipts and expenditure on an ongoing basis and an updated view on the expected Exchequer position in 2008 will be presented at the end of this quarter.