Pádraic McCormack (Galway West, Fine Gael)
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Question 16: To ask the Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment if he will revise the projected unemployment figures for 2008; his views on the scale of increase in unemployment; his views on whether inaccurate projections impedes proper policy creation; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [16744/08]

Micheál Martin (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail)
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In the Budget Outlook unemployment is forecast to average at around 5.5% over the period 2008-2010. The Department of Finance will publish a revised forecast with its Pre-Budget Outlook in October. Ireland compares favourably with the EU27 average of 6.7%. The current rate of unemployment is 4.5% as published by the Central Statistics Office in its Quarterly National Household Survey, Quarter 4 2007.

Unemployment is measured by the Quarterly National Household Survey, published and collated by the CSO, rather than the Live Register which is not designed to measure unemployment. The Live Register includes part-time, seasonal and casual workers entitled to unemployment benefit.

The Live Register figures for the first three months of 2008 are showing a steady increase and this was not unexpected following on particularly from the slowdown in the construction industry. This increase in unemployment must be seen in the context of the substantial increase in employment by 242,500 in the three-year period since 2004. The number of people currently in employment is 2,138,900. It is generally accepted that the strong rate of growth experienced over the past few years could not continue and the economy is now entering a period of adjustment. Employment is forecast to grow by over 1% (24,000) in 2008 for all sectors.

The high demand for labour in the past resulted in increased participation by many who might otherwise not have sought a job and in the need for sourcing labour from outside the State to fill the new jobs being created due to not having sufficient indigenous nationals available to meet the needs of employers.

The actual rise in unemployment over the coming months will be determined by a number of factors including a possible decrease in participation and the response of migrants to the slowdown. In regard to the latter the ESRI expects inward migration to fall from 70,000 in 2007 to 20,000 in 2008. The trend in PPS numbers issued to persons from the EU12 continues to reflect a decline in the numbers entering the State.

The most recent FÁS/ESRI Employment and Vacancies Survey for March 2008 shows that the percentage of firms reporting vacancies across all sectors is 10%, indicating that there is not a collapse in employment opportunities.

The range of integrated support services provided by FÁS involves information sessions, skills analysis, training/retraining courses and job placement will be available for those who become redundant because of company restructuring or closures. In the delivery of these services, FÁS liaises with other relevant agencies such as Enterprise Ireland, IDA Ireland, the City/County Enterprise Boards and the Department of Social and Family Affairs. There is also active engagement with the unemployed after 3 months on the live register to assist them progress towards employment, training or active labour market programmes.

Policy is not fixed on predictions made in the past but is constantly evolving taking into account a very wide range of up-to-date factors that affect and influence the labour market.

In this regard, FÁS is currently developing a strategy in response to the current slowdown in the construction sector. This strategy will contain a range of initiatives such as working in close collaboration with the Construction Industry Federation and other key stakeholders to encourage redundant construction workers to seek re-training in skills which are in short supply in the economy.