Leo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael)
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Question 79: To ask the Tánaiste and Minister for Finance if he will revise his growth forecast for 2008 and 2009; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [15305/08]

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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On Budget day, GDP was forecast to rise by 3.0 per cent this year, with GNP forecast to rise by 2.8 per cent. The Budget day forecasts have not changed. At the time, the median forecast for 2008 among economic commentators was for GDP growth of 3.25 per cent. In other words, my Department's forecasts were marginally below the market consensus. In terms of next year, GDP was forecast to increase by 3.5 per cent at Budget time, while GNP was forecast to rise by 3.3 per cent. However, in framing these forecasts a number of downside risks to the economic outlook were identified on Budget day. These risks included the possibility of a sharper slowdown in the US, the possibility of adverse exchange rate movements, the possibility that financial market difficulties could persist for longer than assumed and the possibility of a sharper contraction in new house building.

It now appears that some of these risks have materialised and in this regard other economic commentators that produce forecasts on a more frequent basis have revised their forecasts downwards. The market consensus is now for GDP growth, of around 2.25 per cent this year. My Department continues to monitor developments and advises accordingly.