Michael Creed (Cork North West, Fine Gael)
Link to this: Individually | In context

Question 398: To ask the Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food if her Department has conducted an analysis of the impact of the proposals at the World Trade Organisation on the economy here and in particular for the agriculture sector and persons employed in agribusiness; the estimated job losses by her Department both at primary producer and agribusiness level; the consequences for tax revenue; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [14536/08]

Mary Coughlan (Donegal South West, Fianna Fail)
Link to this: Individually | In context

My Department carries out analysis on an ongoing basis of the various negotiating proposals which emerge in these negotiations. This analysis covers a large number of different scenarios and their impacts on the different agricultural sectors. In particular, the analysis evaluates the levels of import protection for individual products under the various different tariff cut scenarios that have been proposed up to now in the negotiations. It provides a basis for assessing the impact of such cuts and the relative benefits of seeking sensitive product status to mitigate their effects.

I am not convinced that it would be appropriate at this stage for me to publicly release the analysis undertaken by my officials to advise me in these negotiations. I believe this is a reasonable and prudent approach given the critical point we are at. I do not want to undermine in any way my negotiating position and I do not believe that the Deputy would wish to undermine Ireland's position in these negotiations. I have already indicated that I, or my officials, are available to brief the opposition on some key issues in relation to impact analysis on a confidential basis.

Similar estimations have been made by various representative bodies and shared with the Department. These assessments are also used to evaluate the various negotiating proposals which emerge from the discussions and to develop the Irish negotiating position in these negotiations.

A number of other bodies and research institutes, in Ireland and elsewhere, have also carried out economic studies. Some of these analyses attempt a broader, overall assessment of possible outcomes of the negotiations. Inevitably these studies are based on a wide range of assumptions about issues that are yet to be decided in the negotiations. My Department also considers and uses these studies to inform our negotiating strategy.

In particular I would point to the FAPRI Ireland WTO Analysis of Impacts on Irish and EU Agriculture study of March 2006 and the 2003 Forfas WTO Negotiating Objectives for Irish Enterprise Report. It is my understanding that the FAPRI analysis is currently being updated.

The EU Commission has also recently presented its own latest analysis of possible impacts of the most recent proposals from the chairman of the WTO Agriculture Committee. This analysis is currently the subject of on-going discussions between Member States and the Commission.

I should also point out that I have established a WTO Consultative Committee where stakeholders and my Department regularly discuss developments in the negotiations, and their analysis of them, in some detail. The analysis and assessment emerging from these meetings contributes helpfully to the negotiating position adopted by the Government.