Terence Flanagan (Dublin North East, Fine Gael)
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Question 78: To ask the Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food her views on the expected impending meat scarcity due to increasing feed prices; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [13051/08]

Mary Coughlan (Donegal South West, Fianna Fail)
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It is difficult to be definitive on the question of adequacy of meat supplies in the long-term as there are many variables at play in addition to feed costs. The variables include population growth, consumer tastes, climate change and land use. These will influence both supply and demand. For the medium-term, however, the FAPRI outlook for EU and Irish agriculture, published in October 2007, provides some useful projections for meat production up to 2016:

There will be a gradual decrease in indigenous EU beef production of the order of 7% over the projected period.

In the sheep sector, a 6% decline in EU meat output leading to an increase in lamb imports of almost 9% is forecast.

EU pigmeat production will likely increase by 4% which, combined with lower export volumes, will leave the Community more than self sufficient in this sector.

Poultry output is forecast to increase by almost 5% in the EU and all the indications are for strong growth in imports also.

Overall, it is expected that the EU meat market will remain in equilibrium through a combination of adjusted domestic production and imports. There is no evidence at this stage to support the view that there will be a scarcity of meat. Recent reforms of the Common Agriculture Policy mean that the food industry is better positioned to respond to actual market demand and I believe that a satisfactory market balance will be found in the meat sector.

In the specific Irish context, it is, of course, the case that our beef production is generally grass based and is consequently less affected by feed price increases. Furthermore, Ireland is a significant beef exporter, exporting in 2007 over 90% of our production, making us the largest net beef exporter in Europe and this is likely to remain the case.

Feed costs have no doubt become a big issue for the intensive pig and poultry production sectors in the past year. In line with the general increases in prices of commodities world wide, Irish tillage farmers have benefited from an increase in the price of cereals of at least 50% during the last 12 months. The price of certain imported feed materials has increased by as much as 80%. This has resulted in compound feed prices that are 30% ahead than at the same time last year. Increased cereal planting consequent on the modification of set-aside rules should result in an easing of prices for native grains from the 2008 harvest, but prices are expected to be still well above the level that prevailed in 2006. Import duties have been abolished on certain feedstuffs coming from non-EU countries and it is hoped that this will also add to feed availability.

I have taken action to address the difficulties being experienced by pig producers with a view to maintaining a strong production base here. With support from like-minded colleagues, I succeeded in having EU support measures introduced. An aids-to private storage scheme was available during November 2007 and a scheme of export refunds is currently in place. These have resulted in improved prices.

This question brings into focus the whole issue of food security. It is an important issue for the global agriculture economy and is one that will no doubt attract growing attention in the decades ahead. While I do not believe that there is a cause for concern at this stage this is an area we need to be mindful of in our consideration of the future direction of the CAP. The correct environment needs to be in place to encourage farmers everywhere to produce an adequate supply of safe food in a manner that is consistent with good animal welfare and environmental protection standards and the marketplace must reward these farmers in a satisfactory manner.