Joe Costello (Dublin Central, Labour)
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Question 126: To ask the Tánaiste and Minister for Finance his views regarding the recent increases in unemployment, particularly arising among men in industries such as the construction industry; if he has calculated the expected reduction in tax revenues and the expected cost to the Exchequer of providing unemployment and other social assistance, including rental allowances; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [2353/08]

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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Budget 2008 was published on 5 December last year. It contains forecasts for all the main macroeconomic variables in 2008, including the forecast rate of unemployment and the growth rate in employment, as well as estimated outturns for 2007.

These forecasts of the main macroeconomic variables were taken into account by my Department when producing estimates of expenditure, including social welfare expenditure, and tax revenue for 2008.

The economic projections assume an easing in construction employment as well as a modest rise in unemployment, as measured on the internationally recognised basis — the labour force survey, to average 5.6 per cent this year, from an estimated outturn of 4.6 per cent in 2007. At the same time employment is forecast to continue to show net gains of some 24,000 or a 1.1 per cent increase. However, this is not expected to fully absorb the projected increase in the labour force, so that a modest rise in unemployment is expected. The Budget 2008 forecasts have not been revised.