Brian O'Shea (Waterford, Labour)
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Question 17: To ask the Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources his views on ESRI warnings that electricity capacity is at a stage where forced shutdowns of ageing plants during winter peak demand could result in shortages; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [23090/07]

Eamon Ryan (Dublin South, Green Party)
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The ESRI comment, originally contained in an article published last year, underlines the necessity to ensure adequate capacity margins on the generation system. The Government is committed to ensuring that electricity supply consistently meets the needs of Irish consumers and business. My Department liaises closely with the Commission for Energy Regulation (CER), which has key functions with regard to security of electricity supply, and with EirGrid as the independent Transmission System Operator. Reporting to the CER, EirGrid has responsibility for managing generation adequacy and monitoring generation capacity. EirGrid produces an annual Winter Outlook Report, which provides a rigorous analysis of Ireland's electricity generation capacity to meet expected demand over the peak winter months.

The Winter Outlook Report for this coming winter was published by EirGrid in August and business and enterprise organisations were briefed. Based on their analysis and on detailed contact with each of the power generators, EirGrid forecasts that electricity generating capacity will be sufficient to meet demand this winter. This is in line with EirGrid's previous medium-term generation adequacy forecasts.

The report assumes a peak demand this winter of 5,250 Mega Watts. This compares with the peak demand last winter of 5,035 Mega Watts. EirGrid calculates that generating capacity of 5,930 MW will be available. This includes the new 400 Mega Watt facility at Huntstown, which is now in service.

It is also expected that connected wind capacity will reach 900-1000 Mega Watts by year end, which will represent a very significant increase of over 25% of installed wind capacity since the start of the year.

As with any power generation system, it is not possible to give definitive guarantees that generation adequacy will always be maintained. By their nature, high level forced outages on the system cannot be predicted.

Plant outage, whether planned or unforeseen, must at all times be critically managed to maintain security of supply. EirGrid operates a range of demand control measures in place to assist in managing demand at peak times. These could include reducing demand by agreement with large users in the interests of ensuring domestic customer supply is maintained.

Our generating capacity must ensure an adequate margin between electricity supply and demand. Medium term capacity will be enhanced with the base-load plants currently under construction as well as the new electricity interconnectors scheduled for 2011 and 2012. The provision of new flexible plant and the continued strong growth in wind and other renewable energy is critical in that context.

Key imperatives for electricity supply and demand are energy efficiency and a diverse fuel mix. Radically improving energy efficiency and achieving the ambitious renewable energy target set by the Government will significantly enhance security of supply and ensure that demand itself is more sustainable.