Jack Wall (Kildare South, Labour)
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Question 186: To ask the Minister for Agriculture and Food her views on the EU's SCENAR 2020 study. [3760/07]

Mary Coughlan (Donegal South West, Fianna Fail)
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The SCENAR 2020 Study was carried out by a number of EU institutions to identify future trends and driving forces that will form the framework for the European agricultural and rural economy up to the year 2020. The study took twelve months to complete and built up a reference scenario based on an analysis of trends from 1990 to 2005. These trends were then projected to the year 2020 as a baseline and were then compared with two alternative scenarios. These two scenarios are intended to demonstrate two possible variations of policy, one for example allows for the implementation of a full WTO agreement, during the period up to 2020.

In the context of the future for EU agriculture, the Study concludes that the on-going structural change process will continue, regardless of policy changes. While there will be fewer farms in the EU than at present, overall farming productivity will be higher and also the average income of farmers as well. The study also notes that the current policy of making the agricultural economy more responsive to market forces will stimulate the competitiveness of farmers and strengthen the viability of agricultural enterprises in to the future.

This study's conclusions are closely in line with the analysis in this country on likely future trends. It sets out the present and forthcoming challenges which, in effect, mean that markets for Irish products are becoming ever more competitive and challenging, demanding even greater levels of innovation. This is the reason I launched the Agri Vision 2015 Action Plan, as the Government's response to the future needs of Irish farming. Implementing this Plan will underpin the State's continuing role in creating a climate that allows Irish farming to meet these challenges by facilitating the competitive drive and the attainment of higher standards of innovation, thereby maximising viable farm numbers and farm income. The measures in the National Development Plan (NDP) address the recommendations of the Agri Vision 2015 Action Plan and encompass the Rural Development Programme 2007-2013 that currently awaits EU approval. The NDP embraces the Action Plan vision with an overall package totalling €8.7 billion in public expenditure and provides clear and concrete commitment to that vision and to the continued success of the agri-food sector.