Phil Hogan (Carlow-Kilkenny, Fine Gael)
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Question 126: To ask the Minister for Finance if he has carried out any assessment of the impact of the maturing of special savings investment accounts on the economy, almost half of which will occur in 2006; the way in which this is being factored into tax estimates for 2006; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [33146/05]

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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The SSIA scheme opened on 1 May 2001 and entry to it closed on 30 April 2002. The accounts are due to mature between May 2006 and April 2007. A total of 1.17 million accounts were opened during the period outlined.

The impact of maturing SSIA funds on the economy in 2006 and 2007 is subject to ongoing consideration within my Department. The impact on consumer demand is difficult to estimate and will depend on how the accumulated savings are spent or saved, how that portion of an individual's income that was previously saved in SSIAs is used, and the extent to which savings are rolled over into other investment products. The economic effect will also depend on the state of the economy in 2007, when the bulk of SSIA funds mature. To date, a number of reports have been prepared regarding the impact of the SSIAs by, among others, Goodbody Stockbrokers, Lansdowne Market Research, the Irish Mortgage Corporation and the Bank of Ireland. However, there is no consensus in these reports as to how these funds may be used. It is inevitable that there will be a lot of uncertainty about the likely outcomes. As a scheme such as the SSIA has not existed previously, it is not possible to draw on experience as a basis for anticipating the impact the maturing accounts will have on the economy.

Tax revenue is a product of the level and composition of economic growth. Whatever assessment is made by my Department of the likely economic impact of maturing SSIAs next year will be reflected in the tax forecast for 2006 which will be published in budget 2006. Any impact on tax revenues arising from the economic impact of maturing SSIAs will be once-off.