Richard Bruton (Dublin North Central, Fine Gael)
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Question 220: To ask the Minister for Education and Science the estimated number of pupils who left school each year since 1998 without any qualification; without making the transition to secondary school; without sitting the leaving certificate; and in each case the percentage these pupils constitute of the cohort of pupils involved. [15694/04]

Noel Dempsey (Meath, Fianna Fail)
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The specific information which the Deputy requires is not available. The most recently published analysis by my Department of retention rates at second level was released in August 2003. The report indicates that of those who commenced the junior cycle programme in September 1994, approximately 3,600, 5.7%, left school before completing the junior certificate three years later; approximately 8,900 of those who sat the junior certificate did not sit the leaving certificate and approximately 12,500 young people, 18.2% leave school annually without the leaving certificate.

Analysis of the 1995 and 1996 cohorts of entrants is being prepared for publication within my Department. With cohort studies, there is an invariable time lag of approximately seven years before final data can be analysed. This is to take account of transition year and-or possible repeat of the leaving certificate. My Department is examining how the post-primary pupil database could be utilised to provide contemporary data on drop-out on an annual basis.

My Department is also completing analysis work for the development of a primary pupil database which will facilitate the collation of comprehensive data on transfer rates from primary to post primary level in the future.